政策闸门、潮涌通道与发展机会——一个新结构经济学视角下的最优政府干预程度理论

发布时间：2018-07-05 00:22

本文选题：潮涌现象 + 产能过剩　；参考：《财经研究》2016年06期

【摘要】：投资潮涌和产能过剩是发展中国家在快速结构变迁过程中出现的重要现象。基于新结构经济学的视角,通过剖析该现象文章构建了一个最优政府干预程度理论:首先,由于处于前沿内部,发展中经济体的结构变迁具有后发优势;其次,后发优势所蕴含的发展机会具有社会共识但信息不完全,从而会导致市场自身出现协调困难,进而使得市场主体面临投资潮涌而导致亏损的风险,从而对发展机会谨小慎微;最后,市场的谨小慎微则会导致对发展机会的利用不足,政府会实施积极的发展政策组合对市场的价格、成本与利润进行干预,以增强对市场的激励和放松约束,其结果虽然能使得发展机会得到更充分的利用,但与此同时也会导致更加严重的产能过剩。据此理论,文章主张发展政策不能够因噎废食,理性的做法是利害权衡,把握好最优的干预程度。
[Abstract]:Investment surge and overcapacity are important phenomena in the process of rapid structural change in developing countries. Based on the perspective of new structural economics, this paper constructs a theory of optimal degree of government intervention by analyzing the phenomenon: firstly, the structural changes of developing economies have the advantage of latecomer due to being within the frontier; secondly, The development opportunity contained in the advantage of late development has social consensus but incomplete information, which will lead to the difficulty of coordination in the market itself, and make the main body of the market face the risk of investment surge and lead to loss, thus being cautious about the development opportunity; Finally, market caution can lead to underutilization of development opportunities, and the government will implement an active development policy mix to intervene in market prices, costs and profits in order to enhance incentives and relax constraints on the market. The result is that development opportunities can be used more fully, but at the same time lead to greater overcapacity. Based on this theory, the paper argues that development policy should not be abandoned for choking, the rational approach is to weigh interests and grasp the optimal degree of intervention.
【作者单位】：北京大学新结构经济学研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目(15CJL025) 中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2015M580898)
【分类号】：F123.16

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