保税区域发展对载体城市经济增长的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-07 12:37

本文选题：保税区 + 载体城市经济增长　；参考：《统计与决策》2016年18期

【摘要】：文章基于VECM模型,以宁波保税区域为例,检验了保税区的出口加工值、进出口总额、海关特殊监管区域物流货物三大变量对载体城市经济增长的影响。通过对各个变量的协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,结果表明:1995—2015年,宁波保税区域发展与宁波市GDP经济增长之间存在较显著的长期均衡关系,其出口加工值、进出口总额、海关特殊监管区域物流货物对载体城市GDP增长贡献的正向效应显著,滞后短期内其递增速度加快,达到峰值后其贡献度减缓,之后其贡献力度逐步长期趋于平稳。
[Abstract]:Based on the VECM model and taking Ningbo bonded area as an example, this paper examines the effects of export processing value, total import and export volume and logistics goods of special customs supervision area on the economic growth of carrier cities. Through cointegration test of various variables, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, the results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between Ningbo bonded area development and Ningbo GDP economic growth from 1995 to 2015, and its export processing value. The total import and export volume, the positive effect of regional logistics goods under special customs supervision on the GDP growth of carrier cities is significant, and the increasing speed of logistics goods is accelerating in a short period of time, and the contribution degree is slowing down after reaching the peak value, and then the contribution force gradually tends to steady for a long time.
【作者单位】：中南大学商学院;浙江金融职业学院;
【基金】：浙江省哲学社会科学基金资助项目(310CGYD98YBM)
【分类号】：F299.27

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