房价波动对居民消费的影响渠道及作用效果——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 15:46

本文选题：住房财富效应 + 传导渠道　；参考：《消费经济》2016年05期

【摘要】：文章基于我国2005-2015年间季度数据与结构向量自回归模型对房价影响居民消费的传导渠道及其作用效果进行了实证研究。实证结果显示,房价波动通过收入渠道有利于促进居民消费,而通过信贷和储蓄渠道对居民消费均产生抑制作用;且房价上涨通过信贷渠道对我国居民消费的影响最大,但这种渠道传导的是负向抑制影响,即该渠道导致房价上涨对居民消费的正向影响减少20.7%;而房价下跌通过收入渠道对居民消费的影响最显著,即收入渠道的传导使得房价下跌对居民消费的负向影响减少12.5%。
[Abstract]:Based on the quarterly data and structural vector autoregressive model from 2005 to 2015 in China, this paper makes an empirical study on the transmission channel and its effect of housing price affecting residents' consumption. The empirical results show that the fluctuation of house prices through income channels is conducive to promoting consumption of residents, but through credit and savings channels to curb consumption of residents, and the rise of house prices through credit channels has the greatest impact on the consumption of Chinese residents. However, this channel transmits a negative inhibitory effect, that is, this channel reduces the positive impact of rising house prices on residents' consumption by 20.7; and the decline of house prices has the most significant impact on residents' consumption through the income channel. That is, the transmission of income channels reduces the negative impact of house price decline on residents' consumption by 12.5%.
【作者单位】：闽南师范大学商学院;
【基金】：福建省中青年教师教育一般项目(JAS160295)
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23

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