中国城镇居民能源消费反弹效应动态分析与政策研究

发布时间：2018-07-18 11:38

【摘要】：能源和环境的双重约束日益成为制约中国经济发展的重要障碍,以提高能源效率为核心的低碳经济为解决这一矛盾开辟了新的途径。然而,能源效率的提高可能增加能源的消耗而产生潜在的"反弹",使传统提高能源效率的政策措施受到严峻的挑战。文章在深度剖析能源反弹效应的诱发成因和作用机理的基础上,将反弹效应解耦成价格弹性产生的直接效应和收入弹性引起的间接效应,首次对我国居民消费能源反弹效应进行量化分析。实证结果表明,间接效应是导致能源消费反弹效应变化的根本原因,居民消费质量的提高是刺激能源消费的重要动力。最后在充分考虑反弹效应对能源消费的影响下,指出节能减排应建立以市场为主,政府行政为辅的发展机制。
[Abstract]:The dual restriction of energy and environment has become an important obstacle to the development of China's economy. The low-carbon economy, which focuses on improving energy efficiency, has opened up a new way to solve this contradiction. However, the improvement of energy efficiency may increase the consumption of energy and produce a potential "rebound", which poses a severe challenge to the traditional policy measures to improve energy efficiency. Based on the deep analysis of the causes and mechanism of the energy rebound effect, the paper decoupled the rebound effect into the direct effect of price elasticity and the indirect effect caused by income elasticity. For the first time, the rebound effect of resident energy consumption in China is analyzed quantitatively. The empirical results show that indirect effect is the fundamental reason for the change of energy consumption rebound effect, and the improvement of resident consumption quality is an important driving force to stimulate energy consumption. Finally, considering the impact of rebound effect on energy consumption, it is pointed out that the development mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction should be based on market and supplemented by government administration.
【作者单位】：江苏大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于非期望产出率熵变的产业系统减排机理及碳减排差别责任研究”(71173094)
【分类号】：F206;F126.1

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