基于SVAR模型云南宏观经济波动影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 11:49

【摘要】：1978年至今,云南经济实现了快速增长,但与此同时,云南经济也经历了多次较大波动。本研究基于SVAR模型及凯恩斯的总需求决定理论,就三大需求对云南宏观经济波动的影响进行了分析,并对三大需求与地区生产总值之间同一时期及不同时期的相互影响展开了深入探讨。通过研究,发现三大需求均是影响云南宏观经济波动的因素。从短期看,投资对云南宏观经济的造成的影响最大;从长期看,消费对云南宏观经济波动的影响最大;而出口对云南宏观经济波动的影响在长短期均最弱,印证了云南经济的发展主要得益于内需的扩大,云南经济的波动与内需的波动密切相关,与外需的波动关联较弱。经济发展新常态下,坚持扩大内需,特别是有效发挥消费需求对经济的拉动作用,对云南实现持续较快发展极其重要;同时,进一步稳定投资规模,提高民间投资效率,优化投资结构,提高云南对外开放程度,也将有力助推云南经济在未来稳步发展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, Yunnan economy has achieved rapid growth, but at the same time, Yunnan economy has experienced many large fluctuations. Based on the SVAR model and Keynes' theory of total demand determination, this paper analyzes the impact of the three major demands on the macroeconomic fluctuations in Yunnan. The interaction between the three demands and the regional GDP in the same period and different periods is also discussed. Through research, it is found that the three major demands are the factors that affect the macroeconomic fluctuation in Yunnan. In the short term, the impact of investment on Yunnan's macroeconomic is the greatest; in the long run, consumption has the greatest impact on Yunnan's macroeconomic fluctuations; and exports have the weakest impact on Yunnan's macroeconomic fluctuations in the long and short term. It is confirmed that the development of Yunnan economy is mainly due to the expansion of domestic demand. The fluctuation of Yunnan economy is closely related to the fluctuation of domestic demand, but it is weakly related to the fluctuation of external demand. Under the new normal state of economic development, it is extremely important for Yunnan to continue to develop rapidly by insisting on expanding domestic demand, especially by effectively giving full play to the pull role of consumer demand on the economy; at the same time, it is necessary to further stabilize the scale of investment and improve the efficiency of private investment. Optimizing the investment structure and improving Yunnan's opening to the outside world will also help Yunnan's economy to develop steadily in the future.
【作者单位】：云南财经大学;
【基金】：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于SVAR模型云南宏观经济波动影响因素研究(XKJS201513)”,项目负责人:晏鸿雁
【分类号】：F127;F224

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