产业转移路径对枢纽城市物流需求增长的长期影响——基于空间经济学的模拟与检验
发布时间：2018-10-24 17:05
【摘要】：构建一个存在两个交通枢纽城市的城际物流模型,提出以相对人口规模系数来衡量城市间的产业转移规模,并由此导出流经枢纽城市的城际物流量方程,用以预测随着产业由中心城市向外围城市转移的进程中,产业转移路径对流经枢纽城市物流增长的长期影响,从理论上总结了三种不同产业转移路径下,流经枢纽城市的城际物流量的长期增长趋势。结合最近十年京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群内的产业转移路径和物流发展数据,以北上广三个重要枢纽城市为例,对理论模型进行了实践检验。文章主要结论包括:(1)产业转移路径对交通枢纽城市的物流增长有长期影响,且城市人口规模越大,城际物流增长越稳定;(2)产业转移的路径不同,流经枢纽城市的城际物流需求增长趋势也各不相同;(3)因产业转移路径不同,北京市的交通枢纽地位将面临衰退,上海市的枢纽地位稳定,而广州市的枢纽地位还将继续增强。
[Abstract]:In this paper, an inter-city logistics model with two transportation hubs is constructed, and the industrial transfer scale between cities is measured by the relative population scale coefficient, and the equation of inter-city logistics flow through the hub city is derived. In order to predict the long-term influence of industrial transfer path on logistics growth in hub cities with the process of industry transfer from central city to peripheral city, the paper summarizes three different industrial transfer paths theoretically. The long-term growth trend of intercity material flow through hub cities. Based on the data of industrial transfer and logistics development in the three urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta in the last ten years, three important hub cities in the north of Shangguang are taken as examples, and the theoretical model is tested in practice. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the industrial transfer path has a long-term impact on the logistics growth of transportation hub cities, and the larger the urban population, the more stable the inter-city logistics growth; (2) the different paths of industrial transfer. The growth trend of intercity logistics demand is also different; (3) due to the different industrial transfer path, Beijing's transportation hub status will face recession, Shanghai's hub position will be stable, and Guangzhou's hub position will continue to strengthen.
【作者单位】： 广东财经大学;
【基金】：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(S2013040016119)
【分类号】：F127;F259.27
本文编号：2292004
[Abstract]:In this paper, an inter-city logistics model with two transportation hubs is constructed, and the industrial transfer scale between cities is measured by the relative population scale coefficient, and the equation of inter-city logistics flow through the hub city is derived. In order to predict the long-term influence of industrial transfer path on logistics growth in hub cities with the process of industry transfer from central city to peripheral city, the paper summarizes three different industrial transfer paths theoretically. The long-term growth trend of intercity material flow through hub cities. Based on the data of industrial transfer and logistics development in the three urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta in the last ten years, three important hub cities in the north of Shangguang are taken as examples, and the theoretical model is tested in practice. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the industrial transfer path has a long-term impact on the logistics growth of transportation hub cities, and the larger the urban population, the more stable the inter-city logistics growth; (2) the different paths of industrial transfer. The growth trend of intercity logistics demand is also different; (3) due to the different industrial transfer path, Beijing's transportation hub status will face recession, Shanghai's hub position will be stable, and Guangzhou's hub position will continue to strengthen.
【作者单位】： 广东财经大学;
【基金】：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(S2013040016119)
【分类号】：F127;F259.27
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
1 王志远;;我国产业转移路径实现的博弈分析[J];荆楚理工学院学报;2012年08期
2 李晓英;苏勇;;关于消费者联合品牌态度转移路径的实证分析[J];商业时代;2013年01期
3 贾瑞琪;肃宁积极建设京九带重点枢纽城市[J];经济论坛;1997年07期
相关重要报纸文章 前1条
1 记者 李殿荆;昆明将成国际枢纽城市[N];昆明日报;2011年
相关硕士学位论文 前3条
1 侯耀颖;新常态下我国农村劳动力转移路径的影响因素分析[D];东北财经大学;2016年
2 朱震;广西龙州边贸物流产业园区发展模式研究[D];广西大学;2017年
3 张继林;长安福特售后配件物流运作改进研究[D];郑州大学;2017年
，本文编号：2292004
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/hongguanjingjilunwen/2292004.html
