能源强度与经济增长的动态关系——基于能源结构、政府干预多维视角的计量经济模型

发布时间：2018-11-13 19:42

【摘要】：中国粗放型的经济发展模式导致能源消耗严重,能源强度和经济增长的关系日趋成为研究热点。基于1985~2011年的能源强度及其影响因素的数据建立VAR模型,运用格兰杰检验探索了能源强度及其影响因素间的因果关系,并运用脉冲响应函数分析法研究变量间的长期动态关系。研究结果表明,能源强度及其影响因素存在协整关系。另外,格兰杰检验结果表明,经济增长是能源强度和能源结构的格兰杰原因,能源结构和政府干预均是经济增长的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应函数分析的结果揭示了它们之间的动态变化关系。并且,研究结果揭示,我国现阶段经济发展对能源的依赖性较强,难以在不影响经济发展的同时实施能源保护政策,实施新能源的技术攻关亟待推进。面临我国的能源消耗现状,虽然经济发展最终带来能源强度的减小及能源结构的优化,但是还必须在追求经济发展的同时兼顾能源消耗的效率。新能源行业的技术突破以及政府的政策性补贴成为新能源得以被广泛使用的关键。同时,政府则需要加大财政支持,并保证适度的宏观调控,找到对经济发展干预与调控的平衡点。
[Abstract]:China's extensive economic development model leads to serious energy consumption, and the relationship between energy intensity and economic growth has become a hot topic. Based on the data of energy intensity and its influencing factors from 1985 to 2011, the VAR model was established, and the causality between energy intensity and its influencing factors was explored by Granger test, and the long-term dynamic relationship between variables was studied by impulse response function analysis. The results show that there is cointegration relationship between energy intensity and its influencing factors. In addition, Granger test results show that economic growth is the Granger cause of energy intensity and energy structure, energy structure and government intervention are Granger reasons for economic growth. The results of impulse response function analysis reveal the dynamic relationship between them. Moreover, the research results reveal that the economic development of our country is strongly dependent on energy at the present stage, so it is difficult to implement the energy protection policy while not affecting the economic development, and the implementation of new energy technology needs to be pushed forward. Facing the current situation of energy consumption in our country, although economic development ultimately brings about the decrease of energy intensity and optimization of energy structure, it is necessary to pursue economic development and give consideration to the efficiency of energy consumption at the same time. The technological breakthrough of new energy industry and the government policy subsidy become the key to the wide use of new energy. At the same time, the government needs to increase financial support, and to ensure appropriate macro-control, to find a balance between intervention and regulation of economic development.
【作者单位】：上海大学管理学院;加利福尼亚大学睿迪管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71002053,71472118) 上海市哲学社会规划课题(2014BGL011) 青岛创业创新领军人才计划资助项目(13-CY-4)
【分类号】：F124;F206

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