安徽省农业现代化与城镇化关系研究

发布时间：2018-12-15 01:08

【摘要】：2014年的中央经济会议强调了城镇化和农业现代化同步发展的重要性。城镇化是我国经济发展的重要引擎,是实现现代化的必由之路,城镇化脱离不了“三农”问题——农民、农村和农业,而农业现代化正是解决“三农”问题的着力点。因此,深入了解安徽省农业现代化与城镇化之间的相互关系,使之协调发展,构成了当前安徽省经济持续、稳定增长的必然要求。文章首先依据发展经济学、经济地理学中的相关知识作为理论依据,阐述分析了农业现代化与城镇化之间的作用机制,为全文奠定理论基础。然后对安徽省农业现代化、城镇化的发展现状及两者的关系现状进行了统计描述。随后是对安徽省农业现代化与城镇化关系的实证分析,具体包括三个部分:第一部分,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验测度两者间的长期均衡关系和因果关系。第二部分,运用灰色关联度分析法,从定量的角度测定农业现代化与城镇化之间作用因素的关联性强弱,找出与农业现代化和城镇化关联度大的作用因素。第三部分,基于灰色关联度分析的结果,尝试从关联度大的各个因素着手分析研究安徽省农业现代化与城镇化发展呈负相关的原因。最后,为政府部门在制定推进两者同步发展的政策上提供有针对性的建议,以促进安徽省经济更好、更持续的发展。文章得出以下主要结论:其一,安徽省农业现代化滞后于城镇化。其二,农业现代化与城镇化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,前期城镇化是农业现代化的格兰杰原因,到了后期农业现代化是城镇化的格兰杰原因。两者表现出相互抑制的关系。其三,农业现代化对城镇化的作用机制中,作用因素与城镇化的关联程度都很强,关联程度从强到弱依次是:提供劳动力、农产品供给、提高农民收入、土地供给;城镇化对农业现代化的作用机制中,作用因素与农业现代化的关联程度也很强,关联程度从强到弱依次是:提高农民素质、技术支持、土地供给、财政支持。其四,农业劳动生产率低加之城镇对农村劳动力的拉动力不足;农业劳动生产率低,粮食产量的供给滞后于城镇化的发展;农民收入低、购买力低,使得城镇化扩大内需的潜力未能释放出来;农民受教育程度普遍偏低;农业技术创新能力不足,科技的支撑力有限;耕地质量差等是致使安徽省农业现代化与城镇化相互抑制的原因。最后根据实证分析的结果,提出相应建议。
[Abstract]:The 2014 Central Economic Conference stressed the importance of the simultaneous development of urbanization and agricultural modernization. Urbanization is the important engine of our country's economic development and the only way to realize modernization. Urbanization can not break away from the "three rural" problems-farmers, rural areas and agriculture. Agricultural modernization is the key point to solve the problem of "agriculture, countryside and farmers". Therefore, a deeper understanding of the relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province and its coordinated development constitute the inevitable requirement of sustained and stable economic growth in Anhui Province at present. Based on the relevant knowledge of development economics and economic geography, this paper expounds and analyzes the mechanism of action between agricultural modernization and urbanization, which lays a theoretical foundation for the full text. Then the agricultural modernization of Anhui Province, urbanization and the current situation of the relationship between the statistical description. Then the empirical analysis of the relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province, including three parts: the first part, the use of co-integration test, Granger causality test measure the long-term equilibrium and causality between the two. In the second part, we use the grey correlation analysis method to determine the correlation between agricultural modernization and urbanization from a quantitative point of view, and find out the factors that have a strong correlation with agricultural modernization and urbanization. The third part, based on the results of grey correlation analysis, attempts to analyze and study the reasons of negative correlation between agricultural modernization and urbanization development in Anhui Province. Finally, it provides some suggestions for government departments to make policies to promote the simultaneous development of the two, in order to promote the better and more sustainable development of Anhui's economy. The main conclusions are as follows: first, agricultural modernization in Anhui Province lags behind urbanization. Secondly, there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between agricultural modernization and urbanization. Urbanization is the Granger cause of agricultural modernization in the early stage and Granger cause of urbanization in the later stage. The two show a mutually restrained relationship. Thirdly, in the action mechanism of agricultural modernization on urbanization, the correlation degree between agricultural modernization and urbanization is very strong, the degree of relevance from strong to weak is: to provide labor force, supply of agricultural products, increase farmers' income, land supply; In the mechanism of urbanization on agricultural modernization, the degree of correlation between urbanization and agricultural modernization is also very strong, and the degree of relevance from strong to weak is: improving farmers' quality, technical support, land supply and financial support. Fourth, the low productivity of agricultural labor and the lack of urban power to the rural labor force, the low productivity of agricultural labor, the supply of grain output lags behind the development of urbanization; The low income and low purchasing power of farmers make it impossible to release the potential of urbanization to expand domestic demand, the education level of farmers is generally low, the ability of agricultural technological innovation is insufficient, and the support of science and technology is limited. The poor quality of cultivated land is the cause of mutual restraint between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Anhui Province. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327;F299.27

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