城市空间失配与交通拥堵——对北京市“职住失衡”和公共服务过度集中的实证研究

发布时间：2019-05-08 16:11

【摘要】：城市中各种要素在空间配置中如果出现"空间失配"问题,就会引发大量的交通需求,在交通供给不足的情况下必然形成交通拥堵。目前,在中国大城市中,居住与就业的空间失配(职住失衡),以及公共服务供给与需求的空间失配(公共服务过度集中)是导致交通拥堵的两大原因。以北京为案例城市,本文首先分析了这两种空间失配导致交通拥堵的关键机制;然后利用北京市人口和经济普查、空间地理信息、实时路况等数据,测度北京市各个街道交通拥堵、职住失衡和公共服务过度集中的情况,并采用计量模型定量测度职住失衡与公共服务过度集中对各个区位交通拥堵的影响程度;在此基础上,模拟测算对两种空间失配的优化会在多大程度上缓解交通拥堵并减少相应的社会成本。本文的分析方法及定量结果能够为缓解交通拥堵和环境污染等城市病的城市规划和管理政策提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:If there is a problem of "space mismatch" in the spatial allocation of various elements in the city, a large number of traffic demand will be caused, and traffic congestion will inevitably occur when the traffic supply is insufficient. At present, the space mismatch between housing and employment (job-housing imbalance) and the space mismatch between public service supply and demand (excessive concentration of public service) are two major causes of traffic congestion in large cities of China. Taking Beijing as a case city, this paper first analyzes the key mechanisms of traffic congestion caused by these two spatial mismatches. Then, using the data of population and economic census, spatial geographical information and real-time road conditions in Beijing, the traffic congestion, imbalance of occupation and housing and excessive concentration of public services in various streets of Beijing are measured. The econometric model is used to quantitatively measure the influence of the imbalance of duty and housing and the excessive concentration of public services on traffic congestion in each location. On this basis, the simulation calculates the extent to which the optimization of the two kinds of space mismatch will alleviate the traffic congestion and reduce the corresponding social cost. The analysis method and quantitative results in this paper can provide decision support for urban planning and management policies to alleviate urban diseases such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution.
【作者单位】：清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;芝加哥大学理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“地方公共品影响住房市场的微观机制:基于城市内时空个体数据的研究”(71273154);国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目“城市增长机制与管理研究”(71322307) 国家社会科学基金重点项目“空间经济学理论模型及在我国的应用研究”(13AZD082)
【分类号】：F299.2

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