基于实物期权理论的BTT项目延迟期权投资分析研究
发布时间：2019-06-04 00:39
【摘要】：随着行业竞争和市场环境变化得越来越激烈,项目公司发展的内外需求,项目投资者已经深刻地认识到单一依靠主观判断越来越无法正确的知道项目的投资开发工作,因此,我们必须对BTT项目的投资进行科学精确的分析。由于BTT项目的投资开发周期长、受政策影响大、投资规模大等特点,且BTT项目开发具有不可逆性、不确定性和灵活性等实物期权的特点,所以将实物期权方法引入BTT项目投资分析研究是必然的。本文从我国的现有融资模式的发展现状入手,借鉴国内国外的研究成果,去研究BTT项目延迟投资的实物期权问题。通过研究BTT项目的投资的概念、影响因素,实物期权的概念、分析的基本特征和使用范围,基于实物期权的基本理论建立BTT项目进行延迟投资模型,给出延迟投资期权价值的计算方法,通过确定栏杆价格确定延迟投资的时机选择,并结合案例进行分析,验证模型的有效性,使投资者能够选择到最佳时机来争取最大价值的灵活性,同时为BTT项目投资分析提供出了非常科学的分析方法。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly fierce competition in the industry and the change of the market environment, and the internal and external needs of the development of the project company, the project investors have deeply realized that it is more and more impossible to know the investment and development work of the project more and more correctly by relying on subjective judgment alone. We must make a scientific and accurate analysis of the investment in the BTT project. Because of the long investment and development cycle of BTT project, the influence of policy, the large scale of investment, and the characteristics of real option, such as irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility, the development of BTT project has the characteristics of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the real option method into the investment analysis of BTT projects. Starting from the present situation of the development of the existing financing model in China and drawing lessons from the research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the real option problem of delayed investment in BTT projects. By studying the concept of investment, influencing factors, the concept of real option, the basic characteristics and scope of use of BTT project, the delayed investment model of BTT project is established based on the basic theory of real option. The calculation method of the value of delayed investment option is given, and the timing of delayed investment is determined by determining the price of railing, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by analyzing the case. It enables investors to choose the best time to strive for maximum value flexibility, and provides a very scientific analysis method for BTT project investment analysis.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283
本文编号：2492344
[Abstract]:With the increasingly fierce competition in the industry and the change of the market environment, and the internal and external needs of the development of the project company, the project investors have deeply realized that it is more and more impossible to know the investment and development work of the project more and more correctly by relying on subjective judgment alone. We must make a scientific and accurate analysis of the investment in the BTT project. Because of the long investment and development cycle of BTT project, the influence of policy, the large scale of investment, and the characteristics of real option, such as irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility, the development of BTT project has the characteristics of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the real option method into the investment analysis of BTT projects. Starting from the present situation of the development of the existing financing model in China and drawing lessons from the research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the real option problem of delayed investment in BTT projects. By studying the concept of investment, influencing factors, the concept of real option, the basic characteristics and scope of use of BTT project, the delayed investment model of BTT project is established based on the basic theory of real option. The calculation method of the value of delayed investment option is given, and the timing of delayed investment is determined by determining the price of railing, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by analyzing the case. It enables investors to choose the best time to strive for maximum value flexibility, and provides a very scientific analysis method for BTT project investment analysis.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283
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