地铁车站施工过程中地表沉降的NARXNN时间序列预测模型

发布时间：2018-01-06 07:32

本文关键词：地铁车站施工过程中地表沉降的NARXNN时间序列预测模型　出处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2015年S1期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：准确预测地铁车站开挖过程中的地表沉降已成为城市地下工程风险控制的重点和难点。针对传统时间序列预测模型预测时的单一线性和忽略施工因素影响的静态局限性,提出了带外部输入的非线性自回归神经网络(NARXNN)时间序列预测模型。该模型本身具有延迟单元和反馈结构,且通过引入施工影响因子作为外部输入的一部分,可以非线性动态地考虑地铁车站施工过程。运用NARXNN时间序列预测模型对北京地铁六号线北海北站开挖过程的地表沉降进行预测,结果表明:(1)与传统的ARMA时间序列预测模型相比,NARXNN时间序列预测模型适应性更好、准确性更高;(2)通过引入施工影响因子,NARXNN时间序列预测模型能够准确预测沉降历时曲线突变点处的变化趋势;(3)可以通过引入多组施工影响因子或优化施工影响因子的取值方法来进一步提高NARXNN时间序列预测模型的预测精度。
[Abstract]:It has become an important and difficult point to accurately predict the surface settlement in the excavation process of subway station. Aiming at the single linear prediction of traditional time series prediction model and the static state which neglects the influence of construction factors, it is difficult to control the risk of urban underground engineering. Limitations. A nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARXNN) time series prediction model with external inputs is proposed. The model itself has a delay unit and a feedback structure. And through the introduction of construction impact factors as part of the external input. The NARXNN time series prediction model is used to predict the surface settlement of Beihai North Station excavation on Beijing Metro Line 6. The results show that the ARMA time series prediction model has better adaptability and higher accuracy than the traditional ARMA time series prediction model. (2) the time series prediction model of NARXNN can accurately predict the change trend of the abrupt point in the settlement curve by introducing the construction influence factor (NARXNN); 3) the prediction accuracy of NARXNN time series prediction model can be further improved by introducing multiple construction influence factors or optimizing the value of construction impact factors.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学城市地下工程教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2014YJS142)
【分类号】：U231.3;TU433
【正文快照】： 1引言城市地下工程设计正逐渐由传统的单纯强度和稳定性验算方法向按变形控制的动态信息设计方法过渡。地表沉降是描述城市地下工程施工安全的重要参数,依据监测的地表沉降数据分析地下工程演化规律,预测其发展趋势,及时掌握其稳定情况,在工程上具有重要的意义[1]。目前,地表

【参考文献】