长沙某天然气分布式能源项目综合效益评价分析

发布时间：2018-03-15 09:07

本文选题：分布式能源　切入点：综合效益　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于我国分布式能源的研究与应用起步较晚,目前它的发展还面临着诸多问题。除了单元技术和系统集成技术本身需要不断开拓与完善之外,天然气分布式能源的发展依旧面临着观念与认识的挑战。在对其综合评价研究中,存在着缺乏综合、系统的考虑,片面的关注某一方面,单独割裂的看待各方面效益等问题,从而造成认识上的局限性,这也导致了综合效益评价尚未形成一致认可的评价指标体系以及可操作性较强的评价模型。本文以长沙某天然气分布式能源项目为研究对象,建立了一套可行的天然气分布式能源项目综合效益的评价指标体系及评价模型。首先,本文在查阅大量文献的基础上,将天然气分布式能源项目的综合效益分为经济效益、节能效益、环境效益以及社会效益,依次对各个效益进行了分析,得到了本文的综合效益评价指标体系,即4个二级评价指标和14个三级评价指标。在对经济效益分析中,我国已经形成比较成熟的评价体系,本文就着重于分析分布式能源系统本身经济效益的影响因素,不再对经济效益的评价重复赘言；在对节能效益分析中,首先解决了与分布式能源系统节能评价对照的问题,除了以年节能量和能源综合利用率作为评价指标外,引入了万元投资节能能力这一指标；在对环境效益分析中,提出了噪声污染这个负面效益的评价,杜绝片面的关注减排量这一现象；在对社会效益分析中,立足于分布式能源项目的特点,提出了现阶段推动分布式能源建设能带来的五个社会方面的效益。其次,本文利用相关评价理论建立了综合效益的评价模型。该模型采用层次分析法来确定各指标的权重,采用模糊综合评价法作为评价方法,利用模糊统计法来确定性指标的赋值,利用隶属函数法来确定定量指标的赋值,从而建立了以模糊层次分析法为核心的评价模型,并给出了评价流程。最后,本文以长沙市某天然气分布式能源站为实例,利用上述评价指标体系与评价模型对该项目进行实例分析,得到该项目经济效益“较差”,节能、环境、社会效益“较好”,综合效益“较好”的结论,与专家评审会所得意见较为一致,说明该模型对此项目的契合度较高。本研究可为其他类型、其他地区的天然气分布式能源项目综合效益评价提供一定的参照,可为天然气分布式能源的推广提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:Since the research and application of distributed energy in our country started late, the development of distributed energy is faced with many problems at present. Besides the unit technology and system integration technology itself, it needs to be developed and perfected constantly. The development of natural gas distributed energy is still facing the challenge of concept and understanding. In the research of its comprehensive evaluation, there are some problems such as lack of synthesis, systematic consideration, one-sided attention to one aspect, separate treatment of all aspects of benefits, etc. As a result of the limitation of cognition, the comprehensive benefit evaluation has not yet formed a consistent evaluation index system and a more operable evaluation model. This paper takes a natural gas distributed energy project in Changsha as the research object. A set of feasible evaluation index system and evaluation model for the comprehensive benefit of natural gas distributed energy project are established. Firstly, the comprehensive benefit of the natural gas distributed energy project is divided into economic benefits on the basis of consulting a lot of literature. The energy saving benefit, the environmental benefit and the social benefit are analyzed in turn, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of this paper is obtained, that is, 4 second grade evaluation index and 14 third grade evaluation index. A mature evaluation system has been formed in China. This paper focuses on the analysis of the factors affecting the economic benefits of the distributed energy system, and does not repeat the evaluation of the economic benefits. First of all, the problem of comparing with the energy conservation evaluation of distributed energy system is solved. In addition to the annual energy saving and the comprehensive energy utilization ratio as the evaluation index, the energy saving capacity of ten thousand yuan investment is introduced, and in the analysis of the environmental benefit, the energy saving ability of ten thousand yuan is introduced. The negative benefit evaluation of noise pollution is put forward to put an end to the phenomenon of one-sided attention to emission reduction, and in the analysis of social benefits, it is based on the characteristics of distributed energy projects. This paper puts forward five social benefits that can be brought about by promoting the construction of distributed energy at present. Secondly, this paper establishes a comprehensive benefit evaluation model by using the relevant evaluation theory, which uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used as the evaluation method, the fuzzy statistics method is used to assign the deterministic index, and the membership function method is used to determine the value of the quantitative index. Thus, the evaluation model based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is established. Finally, taking a natural gas distributed energy station in Changsha as an example, this paper analyzes the project by using the above evaluation index system and evaluation model, and obtains that the economic benefit of the project is "poor", energy saving and environment are poor. The conclusion that the social benefit is better and the comprehensive benefit is better is consistent with the opinion of the expert evaluation meeting, which indicates that the model has a higher degree of agreement with this project. The comprehensive benefit evaluation of natural gas distributed energy projects in other regions provides a certain reference, which can provide theoretical support for the promotion of natural gas distributed energy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU996

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