基于贝叶斯理论的建筑结构极值风速预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 02:08

本文选题：Bayes理论　切入点：极值-I型　出处：《建筑结构》2016年S1期

【摘要】：建筑结构极值风速预测的研究在结构设计与安全使用领域具有重要意义。基于Bayes理论提出极值风速预测方法,采用Monte Carlo数值模拟方法产生服从极值-I型分布的伪风速母样,基于伪风速母样分别采用基于Bayes理论和最大似然估计理论的极值-I型风速预测方法进行风速预测,并与伪风速母样的理论值进行对比分析。研究结果表明:与最大似然估计法相比,采用基于Bayes理论建立的极值-I型风速预测模型进行风速预测的精度更高。
[Abstract]:The study of extreme wind speed prediction for building structures is of great significance in the field of structural design and safe use. Based on the Bayes theory, the method of extreme wind speed prediction is proposed, and the pseudo-wind speed master sample is produced by using Monte Carlo numerical simulation method. Based on the pseudo wind speed master sample, the extreme I wind speed prediction method based on the Bayes theory and the maximum likelihood estimation theory is used to predict the wind speed. Compared with the theoretical values of pseudo-wind speed master sample, the results show that, compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method, the prediction accuracy of extreme -I wind speed prediction model based on Bayes theory is higher than that of maximum likelihood estimation method.
【作者单位】：长安大学公路学院;同济大学土木工程学院;中国建筑设计院有限公司;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CHD2012JC077)
【分类号】：TU312.1

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