绿色建筑项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 10:12

本文选题：绿色建筑 + 风险评价　；参考：《沈阳建筑大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：现如今,节能、环保、可持续发展已是建筑业发展的总方向,而绿色建筑的发展是时代进步的必然趋势。绿色建筑是指建筑从设计阶段到最后报废不能使用的全过程中都能满足人类舒适、健康的生活条件,同时能够与社会及环境可持续协调发展的建筑。但是如今人们对于绿色建筑的认知还不够,我国的技术水平还比较低,故绿色建筑在我国的发展起步比较晚,但绿色建筑的发展依旧是建筑业不可回避的使命。为了保证绿色建筑在我国的高速发展,就急需解决绿色建筑的风险管理问题。本文将绿色建筑项目的全寿命周期划分为决策阶段、设计阶段、施工阶段、试运行阶段、运营与维护阶段,研究全寿命周期中各个阶段的风险因素以及其子因素,结合绿色建筑项目现在的发展现状,通过对绿色建筑项目风险的分析,以及向多位拥有丰富经验的专家进行咨询,并查阅了大量的相关资料的条件下,选出了绿色建筑项目的风险因素,如绿色建筑项目目标定位不准确、对绿色建筑的成本估计不足、施工企业对绿色建筑的认识不足等18个因素,建立了绿色建筑项目风险评价指标体系。通过运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对绿色建筑项目的风险因素进行评价,加深了对于绿色建筑项目总风险的把握,建立了绿色建筑项目风险评价的结构层次,构建了风险评价指标体系。通过建立模型进行分析,获得绿色建筑项目各个风险因素的相对权重,最终得到风险评价的结果,即绿色建筑项目总风险相对的风险等级隶属度。通过实证分析即通过对绿地总部1号楼项目进行风险评价,发现绿地总部1号楼项目的风险主要是对设备缺乏科学合理的维护造成的设备效率低下,对市场需求预测不准,缺乏有经验的物业公司,对绿色建筑项目成本估计不准等。采用模糊综合评价法建立评价模型,根据风险评价模型计算得到的结果可知,项目总风险相对的风险等级隶属度较低风险,所以该项目虽然有一定的风险性,但还是可以进行投资的。为了降低绿地总部1号楼项目的投资风险,最后提出了一些有效措施来预防或规避主要风险因素的发生,尽量使得项目的损失降到最低。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, energy saving, environmental protection and sustainable development are the general direction of the development of the construction industry, and the development of the green building is the inevitable trend of the progress of the times. Green architecture is a kind of architecture that can meet the comfortable and healthy living conditions of human beings and can develop in harmony with the society and environment in the whole process from the design stage to the final scrap and cannot be used. But nowadays, the cognition of green building is not enough, the technology level of our country is still low, so the development of green building starts late in our country, but the development of green building is still an unavoidable mission of construction industry. In order to ensure the rapid development of green building in our country, it is urgent to solve the problem of risk management of green building. In this paper, the whole life cycle of green building project is divided into decision-making stage, design stage, construction stage, trial operation stage, operation and maintenance stage. Considering the present development situation of green building project, through analyzing the risk of green building project, consulting many experts with rich experience, and consulting a lot of relevant information, The risk factors of the green building project are selected, such as the inaccurate orientation of the green building project, the insufficient estimate of the cost of the green building, the lack of understanding of the green building in the construction enterprise, and so on. The risk evaluation index system of green building project is established. Through the use of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk factors of green building project, the total risk of green building project is grasped, and the structural level of risk evaluation of green building project is established. The index system of risk evaluation is constructed. The relative weight of each risk factor of the green building project is obtained by establishing the model, and the result of risk evaluation is obtained, that is, the relative risk grade membership degree of the total risk of the green building project. Through the empirical analysis, that is, through the risk evaluation of the No. 1 Green Space headquarters Project, it is found that the risk of the No. 1 Green Space headquarters Project is mainly due to the lack of scientific and reasonable maintenance of the equipment caused by the low efficiency of the equipment, and the market demand forecast is not correct. Lack of experienced property companies, green building project cost estimates are inaccurate. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish the evaluation model. According to the results obtained from the risk evaluation model, it can be seen that the total risk of the project is lower than that of the risk grade, so although the project has certain risk, But it is still possible to invest. In order to reduce the investment risk of the No.1 Building of Greenbelt headquarters, some effective measures are put forward to prevent or avoid the occurrence of the main risk factors, so as to minimize the loss of the project.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU201.5;TU71

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