空间—规模约束下的城市开发边界划定研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 05:46

本文选题：城市开发边界 + 空间约束　；参考：《南京大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：国家新型城镇化规划明确提出要求划定城市开发边界,同时城市开发边界的划定也成为落实最严格耕地保护制度、推动多规融合实施的新任务。面对城市无序蔓延、边界限制城市扩张作用较弱等实际问题,科学划定城市开发边界,对于统筹安排各类用地、合理布局各类产业具有指导意义,对于推动新型城镇化发展和多规融合实施具有实践意义。元胞自动机是进行城镇用地模拟、预测的成熟模型,同时考虑城镇发展过程中受到的空间约束和规模约束,对标准CA模型加以改进,使预测结果更加科学合理。本文以江苏省金坛市为研究区,首先介绍金坛市城镇用地空间增长过程,并进行城镇用地空间增长特征分析,在此基础上通过变权法、模糊评价法、核主成分分析等方法对金坛市的绝对限制性、生态适宜性和区位适宜性进行分析。其次通过对城镇用地规模驱动力和制动力进行分析,并在此基础上构建系统动力学模型,对目标年城镇用地规模进行多情景预测。最后结合空间约束和规模约束,通过ArcGIS ModelBuilder平台构建模型进行城镇用地扩展模拟和预测,并考虑现有规划的控制边界,综合划定城市开发边界。本文主要研究内容和研究结论如下:(1)城镇用地空间增长与约束分析:首先对金坛市城镇用地从增长过程、分形维数、重心偏移、扩展强度四方面进行分析,确定金坛市城镇用地发展趋势整体上是向东方向进行扩展,其次是向南方向进行扩展,并且扩张速度逐步变缓。另外通过生态适宜性分析、区位适宜性分析,确定金坛市适宜性较高的区域主要集中在金城镇、经济开发区、尧塘镇附近,其次则分布在各个镇区附近。(2)城镇用地规模分析与预测:首先确定城镇用地规模驱动力(城镇化、经济发展、交通发展、工业园区)和制动力(生态安全、耕地保护、工程项目),然后构建系统动力学模型并设置多个目标年情景,通过对不同情景预测结果进行比较,确定金坛市2020年城镇用地规模为7395.28公顷。(3)城市开发边界划定:首先以2004年城镇用地作为基础模拟2012年,并将模拟情况与实际情况进行比较,模拟结果表明主要是形成城镇用地的集聚效应,而对于部分区域的跳跃式发展则难以模拟出来,总体来说模拟精度可以达到预期效果。然后以2012年城镇用地作为基础模拟2020年,模拟结果表明对于中心城区部分,城镇用地的集聚效应更加明显,另外对于尧塘镇镇区部分,则展现出向北扩展的趋势,且该区域相较于其他镇区扩展强度更大,这与金坛市当前的金城镇一经济开发区一尧塘镇新组团发展模式相吻合。在预测的金坛市2020年城镇用地布局的基础上划定城市开发边界,并考虑现有规划的控制边界,对城市开发边界进行修正,综合确定金坛市城市开发边界。综上所述,本文提出了一套城市开发边界的划定方法,从空间约束分析、规模约束分析、城镇用地模拟与预测、城市开发边界划定与修正四大方面入手,综合确定城市开发边界。其中通过变权法、模糊评价法、核主成分分析法、系统动力学等方法,改进CA模型中的空间约束和规模约束部分,使模拟结果更加科学,使划定的城市开发边界更加合理。最后确定的城市开发边界可以为金坛市未来城市规划、建设管理提供一定的参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:The national new urbanization plan clearly puts forward the requirements for the delimitation of the urban development boundary, while the delimit of the urban development boundary is also a new task to implement the most stringent farmland protection system and promote the implementation of multi-disciplinary integration. Facing the unordered spread of the city, the boundary restrictions on urban expansion are weak, and the urban development boundary is scientifically delimited. It is of practical significance to promote the development of new urbanization and the implementation of multi-disciplinary integration. Cellular automata is a mature model for urban land use simulation and prediction, considering the spatial constraints and scale constraints in the process of urban development, and the standard CA model is taken into account. This paper, taking Jintan city of Jiangsu Province as the research area, first introduces the growth process of urban land space in Jintan, and analyses the spatial growth characteristics of urban land use, and on this basis, the absolute restrictive and ecological suitability of Jintan city by means of variable weight method, fuzzy evaluation method and nuclear principal component analysis. And location suitability analysis. Secondly, through the analysis of urban land use scale driving force and system dynamics, and on this basis, the system dynamics model is built to predict the urban land use scale in the target year. Finally, combined with space constraints and scale constraints, the model of urban land use is constructed through the ArcGIS ModelBuilder platform. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) analysis of urban land space growth and constraint analysis: first of all, the urban land use of Jintan is analyzed from four aspects: growth process, fractal dimension, center of gravity migration and expansion strength, and the determination of Jintan The development trend of urban land use is extended to the East on the whole, followed by the expansion of the south direction, and the expansion rate gradually slows. In addition, through the ecological suitability analysis and location suitability analysis, it is determined that the regions with higher suitability in Jintan are mainly concentrated in Jincheng Town, economic Development Zone, Yao Tang Town, and then distributed in the vicinity of the town of Yao Tong. (2) the scale analysis and prediction of urban land use: first determine the driving force of urban land scale (urbanization, economic development, traffic development, Industrial Park) and the dynamic (ecological security, cultivated land protection, engineering projects), and then construct the system dynamics model and set up multiple target year scenarios, through the different scenarios prediction results. By comparison, the size of urban land use in Jintan in 2020 is 7395.28 hectares. (3) the urban development boundary is delimited. First, the urban land use in 2004 is simulated in 2012, and the simulation results are compared with the actual situation. The simulation results show that the agglomeration effect is mainly formed in the urban land use, and the jump development in some areas is the same. It is difficult to simulate it. In general, the simulation precision can reach the expected effect. Then the urban land use in 2012 is used as the basis to simulate 2020. The simulation results show that the agglomeration effect of urban land is more obvious for the central part of the city, and the trend of the northern expansion of the town area of Yao Tong town is shown, and the region is compared to it. The expansion of his town is more intense, which is in accordance with the new development model of the new group of Yao Tang Town, an economic development zone in Jincheng city of Jintan. The urban development boundary is delimited on the basis of the urban land distribution in the city of Jintan in 2020, and the control boundary of the existing planning is considered, the development boundary of the city is amended and the Jintan city is synthetically determined. In summary, this paper puts forward a set of methods for the delimitation of urban development boundaries. From four aspects: spatial constraints analysis, scale constraint analysis, urban land use simulation and prediction, urban development boundary delimitation and correction, the urban development boundary is synthetically determined. The system dynamics and other methods improve the spatial constraints and scale constraints in the CA model, make the simulation results more scientific and make the delimited urban development boundary more reasonable. The final determination of the urban development boundary can provide some reference and reference for the future urban planning and construction management of Jintan.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU984.113;P208

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