工程建设耦合系统安全风险演化研究
发布时间：2018-08-03 16:51
【摘要】：工程建设具有的动态工作环境、劳动密集型、使用重型设备、项目临时性等特点决定了其与其他行业相比较有更大的安全隐患,导致工程建设安全事故频发并且后果严重,因此需要建立工程建设安全风险分析模型并提出安全事故的预防措施。工程建设包含不同范畴的众多安全风险因素,这些风险因素一般可归为社会和技术两个层面,且它们之间相互关联,因此需要从系统的角度分析复杂的社会-技术系统。传统的风险分析方法缺乏系统的视角或从系统的角度分析但没有充分考虑这些风险因素之间的耦合作用,导致分析的结果偏离实际情况而不能指导安全风险的管理。本文综合考虑工程建设的系统性和耦合性,针对工程建设全过程建立工程建设安全风险分析模型,认识系统安全的演化规律,预防和控制安全事故的发生。首先,介绍耦合相关概念,分析工程建设系统的耦合特点,并结合安全事故案例分析工程安全事故的类型和分布特征及相应的安全风险因素,提出本文的研究路线,将研究的问题结合工程建设子系统进行分类处理,即一类安全事故类型与工程建设组织子系统相关,另一类安全事故与工程建设组织系统和物理系统相关。其次,为了分析工程建设系统在风险因素耦合作用下安全状态的演化规律,本文基于历史风险分析理论,分别建立工程建设组织子系统和物理子系统安全风险分析模型,并说明两个子系统分别基于决策基准和安全风险的演化,以及决策基准和安全风险耦合产生的非线性作用效果,两个子系统通过安全风险传递和反馈构成工程建设安全风险系统。再次,为了说明上述构建的工程建设安全风险系统概念模型的有效性,本文以湘湖地铁基坑建设为案例,基于前述理论基础分析湘湖基坑组织系统的在决策基准耦合作用下产生的风险因素,在风险因素进一步耦合作用下改变物理系统的属性,系统安全状态(支护结构位移)发生非线性变化。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of dynamic working environment, labor-intensive, heavy equipment and temporary project determine that engineering construction has more hidden dangers than other industries, resulting in frequent accidents and serious consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the safety risk analysis model of engineering construction and put forward the preventive measures of safety accidents. Engineering construction includes many safety risk factors in different categories. These risk factors can generally be classified as two levels of society and technology, and they are related to each other. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze complex social-technological systems from the point of view of system. The traditional risk analysis method lacks a systematic perspective or analyses from a systematic point of view, but does not fully consider the coupling between these risk factors, which results in the result of analysis deviating from the actual situation and can not guide the management of security risk. Considering the systematicness and coupling of engineering construction, this paper establishes a safety risk analysis model for the whole process of engineering construction, understands the evolution law of system safety, and prevents and controls the occurrence of safety accidents. First of all, the concept of coupling is introduced, the coupling characteristics of engineering construction system are analyzed, and the types and distribution characteristics of engineering safety accidents and the corresponding safety risk factors are analyzed in combination with safety accident cases, and the research route of this paper is put forward. The problems studied are classified and dealt with by the engineering construction subsystem, that is, one type of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization subsystem, the other kind of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization system and the physical system. Secondly, in order to analyze the evolution law of the safety state of engineering construction system under the coupling of risk factors, based on the theory of historical risk analysis, this paper establishes the safety risk analysis models of engineering construction organization subsystem and physical subsystem, respectively. The results show that the two subsystems are based on the evolution of decision-making benchmark and security risk, and the nonlinear effect of the coupling of decision-making benchmark and security risk. The two subsystems constitute the engineering construction safety risk system through the safety risk transmission and feedback. Thirdly, in order to illustrate the validity of the above conceptual model of safety risk system, this paper takes the foundation pit construction of Xianghu metro as a case study. Based on the above theory, this paper analyzes the risk factors of the Xianghu foundation pit organization system under the coupling of decision-making datum, and changes the attributes of the physical system under the further coupling of the risk factors. The safety state of the system (displacement of supporting structure) changes nonlinear.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU714
本文编号：2162374
[Abstract]:The characteristics of dynamic working environment, labor-intensive, heavy equipment and temporary project determine that engineering construction has more hidden dangers than other industries, resulting in frequent accidents and serious consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the safety risk analysis model of engineering construction and put forward the preventive measures of safety accidents. Engineering construction includes many safety risk factors in different categories. These risk factors can generally be classified as two levels of society and technology, and they are related to each other. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze complex social-technological systems from the point of view of system. The traditional risk analysis method lacks a systematic perspective or analyses from a systematic point of view, but does not fully consider the coupling between these risk factors, which results in the result of analysis deviating from the actual situation and can not guide the management of security risk. Considering the systematicness and coupling of engineering construction, this paper establishes a safety risk analysis model for the whole process of engineering construction, understands the evolution law of system safety, and prevents and controls the occurrence of safety accidents. First of all, the concept of coupling is introduced, the coupling characteristics of engineering construction system are analyzed, and the types and distribution characteristics of engineering safety accidents and the corresponding safety risk factors are analyzed in combination with safety accident cases, and the research route of this paper is put forward. The problems studied are classified and dealt with by the engineering construction subsystem, that is, one type of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization subsystem, the other kind of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization system and the physical system. Secondly, in order to analyze the evolution law of the safety state of engineering construction system under the coupling of risk factors, based on the theory of historical risk analysis, this paper establishes the safety risk analysis models of engineering construction organization subsystem and physical subsystem, respectively. The results show that the two subsystems are based on the evolution of decision-making benchmark and security risk, and the nonlinear effect of the coupling of decision-making benchmark and security risk. The two subsystems constitute the engineering construction safety risk system through the safety risk transmission and feedback. Thirdly, in order to illustrate the validity of the above conceptual model of safety risk system, this paper takes the foundation pit construction of Xianghu metro as a case study. Based on the above theory, this paper analyzes the risk factors of the Xianghu foundation pit organization system under the coupling of decision-making datum, and changes the attributes of the physical system under the further coupling of the risk factors. The safety state of the system (displacement of supporting structure) changes nonlinear.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU714
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