牧奕公司年产30万吨饲料厂建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 09:47

【摘要】：建设项目开发风险管理具有高风险性。随着我国企业对固定资产投资力度不断加大,这些开发企业逐步意识到对固定资产投资项目进行风险管理很有必要。因此,对建设项目进行风险管理研究,有利于降低企业投资成本,减少风险发生的概率。本文的研究目标在于综合运用项目管理理论知识,用项目风险管理的理论与方法,讨论项目风险管理的理论和方法在实践中的具体应用问题。本文的研究内容是：文章首先详细阐述项目投资中有关风险管理的理论；其次,对本项目建设的背景、必要性、建设条件、实施进度及市场情况等进行深入分析；在此基础上,对该项目开发过程中所遇到的各种风险进行识别,找出影响该项目开发的主要风险因素：然后运用不确定性分析方法对各个阶段的风险因素进行评估；最后,针对各个风险状况,提出风险处理方案及监控措施,并对本项目的风险管理进行总结,对项目风险管理的未来发展做出展望。本文主要采用文献阅读与实地考察相结合、定性与定量相结合和规范分析法。本文通过分析得出以下结论：第一,年产30万吨饲料厂建设项目在投资决策阶段中所存在的主要风险是财务风险,经过财务可行性评估得出该阶段的财务风险可以得到控制。第二,年产30万吨饲料厂建设项目在土地获取阶段所存在的主要风险是融资风险及征地和原住户安置风险,利用专家打分法进行风险评估,得出该阶段需实行重点控制的风险有融资风险及征地和原住户安置风险等,并提出控制这些风险的各种措施。第三,年产30万吨饲料厂建设项目在建设阶段存在的主要风险是施工工期风险、设计变更风险、施工条件和价格变更等方面带来的成本风险、人员素质、材料质量和施工技术带来的质量风险,利用专家打分法进行风险评估,得出该阶段需实行重点控制的风险有进度拖延、设计变更、质量达不到要求等,并提出这些风险控制的措施。
[Abstract]:Construction project development risk management has high risk. With the increasing of investment in fixed assets, these enterprises gradually realize that it is necessary to manage the risk of investment projects in fixed assets. Therefore, the research on risk management of construction project is beneficial to reduce the investment cost and reduce the probability of risk. The purpose of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to discuss the application of the theory and method of project risk management in practice. The research contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the paper elaborates the theory of risk management in project investment; secondly, the background, necessity, construction condition, implementation progress and market situation of the project construction are deeply analyzed. On this basis, the paper identifies the various risks encountered in the development of the project, finds out the main risk factors that affect the development of the project, and then uses the uncertainty analysis method to evaluate the risk factors in each stage; Finally, according to each risk situation, the paper puts forward the risk treatment scheme and monitoring measures, summarizes the risk management of the project, and makes a prospect for the future development of the project risk management. This paper mainly adopts the combination of literature reading and field investigation, qualitative and quantitative analysis and normative analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, the main risk in the investment decision-making stage of the construction project with annual production of 300000 tons feedstock plant is financial risk, which can be controlled through the financial feasibility evaluation. Second, the main risks in the land acquisition stage of the construction project with an annual production of 300000 tons of feedstock are financing risk, land requisition and original household resettlement risk, and the risk assessment is carried out by using the expert scoring method. It is concluded that the key risks to be controlled in this stage are financing risk, land requisition and original household rehousing risk, and various measures to control these risks are put forward. Third, the main risks in the construction phase of the construction project with an annual production of 300000 tons of feedstock are the risks of construction duration, the risk of design changes, the cost risks brought by changes in construction conditions and prices, and the quality of personnel. The quality risk caused by material quality and construction technology is assessed by using expert scoring method. It is concluded that the risk that needs to be controlled in this stage is delayed in progress, design changes, and the quality is not up to the requirements, etc. And put forward these risk control measures.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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