考虑风险关联的项目风险应对的案例决策分析方法

发布时间：2019-04-29 17:56

【摘要】：针对考虑风险关联的项目风险应对策略选择问题,提出了一种案例决策分析方法。首先,将当前项目风险应对问题视为目标案例,并将收集到的一些相似项目风险应对案例视为历史案例,在此基础上,通过判断历史案例涉及的风险是否涵盖目标案例涉及风险来提取可用历史案例,并通过相似度计算及风险关联的处理来提取相似历史案例;然后,通过分析相似历史案例的风险应对策略与目标案例涉及风险的应对关系来进行风险应对策略的不适用性分析及修正,并形成针对目标案例的备选风险应对策略,进一步地,通过评价关于各备选风险应对策略的风险应对的成本和预期效果来对其进行优选。最后,通过一个实例分析说明了本文给出方法的可行性与有效性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a case-based decision-making method is proposed for the selection of project risk response strategies considering risk correlation. First, consider the current project risk response as a target case, and some of the similar project risk response cases collected as historical cases. By judging whether the risks involved in historical cases cover the risks involved in the target cases, the available historical cases are extracted, and similar historical cases are extracted through similarity calculation and risk correlation processing. Then, through the analysis of the risk response strategies of similar historical cases and the risk response relationship of the target cases, the inapplicability of the risk response strategies is analyzed and revised, and the alternative risk response strategies for the target cases are formed. Further, it is optimized by evaluating the cost and expected effectiveness of the risk response for each alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
【作者单位】：河南工业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71501063) 国家社会科学基金资助项目(14BGL153) 河南省省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2014SBS003,2015QNJH20) 河南省高校人文社科重点研究基地物流研究中心项目(2015-JD-04)
【分类号】：TU71

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