中国区域最终需求及出口活动的就业拉动作用研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 21:24

本文关键词：中国区域最终需求及出口活动的就业拉动作用研究　出处：《人口学刊》2015年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：刺激消费、扩大固定资产投资及提升出口是当前我国落实"稳增长、促就业"目标的主要调控手段。本文聚焦中国各主要经济区域的就业问题,尝试定量研究这些最终需求对区域就业拉动作用的大小、空间分配和拉动效率。具体采用劳动力扩展的中国多区域投入产出(labor-extendedly MRIO)模型,将中国大陆划分为八大经济区域,最终核算出2007年中国八区域最终需求的就业拉动情况。结果表明:位列前三名的中部、西南和东部沿海区域的就业拉动量之和占全国就业总量的48.35%,说明该三区域消费和固定资产投资的促进就业效果明显;对外出口的拉动效应占总量19.15%,低于其对经济增长的贡献比例,相比于消费和投资,对外出口就业拉动作用明显偏弱。各区域就业拉动效应的诱发和承接情况差异较大,与区域产业结构的劳动力容纳密度相关。中部、西北、西南三区域最终需求的就业拉动效率高于全国水平,而京津区域及外部出口就业拉动效率仅为全国平均水平的67.25%,表明我国的促进就业政策应适当向上述三区域倾斜并且应专注于扩大内需,以达到更强调控效果。
[Abstract]:Stimulating consumption, expanding investment in fixed assets and upgrading export are the main means of controlling the goal of "steady growth and employment" in our country. This paper focuses on the employment problems of main economic regions in China, and tries to quantitatively study the size, spatial allocation and pull efficiency of these final demands on regional employment. Based on the labor-extendedly MRIO model with multiple labor force expansion, the Chinese mainland is divided into eight economic regions. Finally, the employment promotion situation of China's eight regional final demand in 2007 is finally calculated. The results show that the top three central, southwestern and eastern coastal areas of employment and employment accounted for 48.35% of the total, the three regional consumption and fixed asset investment employment promotion effect is obvious; the pulling effect of exports accounted for 19.15% of the total, less than its contribution to economic growth rate, compared to the consumer investment and exports, boosting employment was weak. There is a great difference in the induction and acceptance of the employment pulling effect in each region, which is related to the labor capacity of the regional industrial structure. The central, northwest and southwest employment efficiency three regional final demand is higher than the national level, and the Beijing Tianjin region and the external export employment rate is only 67.25% of the national average, indicating that China's employment policy should be appropriate to the three regional tilt and should focus on expanding domestic demand, in order to achieve better control effect.
【作者单位】：中国人口与发展研究中心调查评估数据部;安徽师范大学生命科学学院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目:人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统(2012BA40B01)
【分类号】：F752.62;F249.2
【正文快照】： 稳增长、促就业被确立为我国转型阶段的主要经济调控目标。经济增长和促进就业之间具有较强的一致性,因为只有维持一定的经济发展速度,才能持续创造可观的新增就业岗位。[1-2]可以说,促进就业在本质上依赖于经济持续增长。另一方面,消费、投资与出口被认为是拉动区域经济增长

【参考文献】