基于博弈模型的核电的公众接受性研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 16:25

本文关键词：基于博弈模型的核电的公众接受性研究　出处：《南华大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：核电作为低碳、环保、高效的绿色能源，在化石能源日益枯竭，温室效应显著的二十一世纪，越来越受到全世界的认可。2011年3月11日，日本爆发的福岛核事故让全球陷入“核恐慌”，各国公众谈核色变，严重影响了核电的发展进程。如何让公众接受核电，这是核电长远发展亟需解决的问题。本文旨在研究核电的公众接受性，通过构建公众与核电企业的博弈模型，，对其均衡结果进行演化仿真，从而确定各参数对公众接受性的作用的方向和程度，最后提出提升公众接受性的具体意见。文中首先对公众接受性的相关文献进行综述，介绍了各国的公众接受性现状。从博弈论的角度构建关于公众与核电企业的完全信息静态博弈模型，进而得到博弈模型的均衡结果，然后根据演化稳定策略，运用Matlab对演化过程进行了仿真实验，根据不同参数值下的仿真结果，得出各参数对公众接受性作用的方向及大小。演化结果说明，公众用于了解、认识核电所花费的成本和公众接受性呈负相关关系；公众因核电企业发展所获的收益和公众接受性呈正相关关系；公众查出核企违规所获的奖励和公众接受性成正相关关系；公众所承担的社会责任和公众接受性呈正相关关系。根据上述演化结果，相关核电企业或部门通过加强核电科普，建立公众参与机制，惠利于民，加强核电监管等途径，来提升公众接受性，使公众更好的了解、认可、接受核电，进而推动我国核电又好又快的发展。
[Abstract]:Nuclear power as low carbon, environmental protection, efficient green energy, with the increasing depletion of fossil energy, twenty-first Century significant greenhouse effect, more and more recognized.2011 around the world in March 11th, the outbreak of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan plunged the world into "nuclear panic", the public around the mere mention of the nuclear talks, has seriously affected the development of nuclear power. Let the public acceptance of nuclear power, it is urgent to solve the problem of long-term development of nuclear power. This paper aims to study the public acceptance of nuclear power, by constructing game model of enterprises and the public power, the equilibrium results of evolution simulation, so as to determine the parameters of the public acceptance of the direction and extent of the effect, finally put forward specific suggestions to enhance the public acceptance.
The related literature on first public acceptance of the review, introduces the present situation of the construction of public acceptance. The static game model with complete information about the enterprise and the public power from the perspective of game theory, and then obtain the equilibrium result of game model, and then according to the evolutionary stable strategy, using Matlab to simulate the evolution process according to the simulation results, different parameter values of the parameters on the role of public acceptance of the direction and size.
The evolution results show that for the public understanding, understanding the cost cost of nuclear power and public acceptance was negatively correlated; positive related to accept public for nuclear power enterprise development income and the public; the public found nuclear enterprises illegal reward and public acceptance into a positive relationship; positive related to public the social responsibility and the public. According to the evolutionary results related to nuclear power enterprises or departments by strengthening nuclear science, the establishment of public participation mechanism, benefit the public benefits, strengthen the supervision of nuclear power and other ways to promote the public to accept, make the public a better understanding, acceptance, acceptance of nuclear power, and promote sound and rapid development of nuclear power in China.

【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F426.23;F224.32

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