基于RS-BPNN的房地产项目前期投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 11:28

本文关键词：基于RS-BPNN的房地产项目前期投资风险评价研究　出处：《河北工程大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业作为关系我国国计民生的基础性行业之一，具有建设时间长、影响因素多、投资金额大、回报率高、涉及范围广等特点，，这就决定了房地产投资过程的复杂性和风险性。房地产风险是客观存在的，它贯穿于房地产开发活动的每一环节，其中前期阶段未知因素最多，对项目总投资的影响程度高达90%以上。然而长期以来开发商过于重视房地产开发项目的类型和收益，而忽略了房地产前期阶段风险的重要性，往往是出现问题之后才去弥补和挽救，致使开发成本上升，风险增大，甚至整个开发项目的失败。因此，在房地产市场竞争趋于白热化的环境下，进行房地产项目前期投资风险评价研究，对预防和降低投资风险、提高房地产企业的经济效益具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文的主要研究工作如下：首先介绍了我国房地产行业的发展现状和当前开发商在房地产项目前期阶段投资过程中存在的问题；其次对房地产投资风险、BP神经网络以及粗糙集的相关理论进行了阐述；然后对房地产项目前期阶段的内容与风险进行了系统地分析和归类，并利用粗糙集对风险指标进行约简，建立了基于RS-BPNN房地产前期投资风险评价模型；最后用石家庄市XX房地产项目进行验证，结果表明，该模型在房地产前期投资风险评价方面是可行的、有效的，具有较高的实用价值。
[Abstract]:As one of the basic industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, the real estate industry has the characteristics of long construction time, many influencing factors, large investment amount, high return rate and wide range. This determines the complexity and risk of real estate investment process. Real estate risk is an objective existence, it runs through every link of real estate development activities, among which the most unknown factors in the early stage. The impact on the total investment of the project is as high as more than 90%. However, for a long time, developers have paid too much attention to the types and benefits of real estate development projects, and neglected the importance of the risk in the early stage of real estate. It is often after the problem to make up for and rescue, resulting in higher development costs, increased risk, and even the failure of the entire development project. Therefore, in the real estate market competition tends to be white-hot environment. The research on the pre-investment risk evaluation of real estate projects has important theoretical and practical significance in preventing and reducing investment risks and improving the economic benefits of real estate enterprises. The main research work of this paper is as follows: firstly, it introduces the current situation of the real estate industry in China and the problems existing in the investment process of the current developers in the early stage of the real estate project; Secondly, the paper expounds the BP neural network of real estate investment risk and the theory of rough set. Then the content and risk of the early stage of the real estate project are systematically analyzed and classified, and the rough set is used to reduce the risk index. The risk evaluation model of real estate pre-investment based on RS-BPNN is established. Finally, XX real estate project in Shijiazhuang City is used to verify the model. The results show that the model is feasible, effective and of high practical value in the risk evaluation of real estate pre-investment.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42;F224

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