基于综合模拟预警法的重庆市房地产市场风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 20:08

本文关键词：基于综合模拟预警法的重庆市房地产市场风险预警研究　出处：《重庆理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产市场作为我国重要的消费市场和投资市场，其发展趋势一直备受关注。随着住房制度的改革和城市化进程的加快，近几年我国房地产业取得了较快的发展，市场呈现出供销两旺的局面。一方面，房地产开发投资额占固定资产投资比重不断上升，与房地产相关的贷款余额也快速上升；另一方面，商品房价格也大幅度上涨，国内外关于目前房价是否合理、房地产市场是否存在泡沫的讨论也由此展开。近年来，随着城市化进程的加快以及重庆整体经济的发展，农村人口的转移以及外来人口的增加为重庆的城市发展和房地产开发带来了机遇。与此同时，越来越多的开发企业和投机者进入重庆市房地产市场，使得重庆市房地产市场的发展环境愈加复杂，风险源也随之增加。因此洞悉房地产市场可能存在的风险进而采取有效的规避措施，对房地产市场利益相关者而言就显得愈加重要。本文首先介绍了房地产市场风险预警研究的一般理论，并详细分析了房地产市场风险的形成原因。其次，本文对重庆市房地产市场发展的现状进行了较为详细的分析，并认为当前重庆市房地产市场整体运行较为平稳。结合重庆市房地产市场发展的这一现状，，本文运用文献统计法与因子分析法结合重庆市房地产经济发展的现状，从房地产业同国民经济的协调关系、房地产业自身增长速度、房地产市场供求状态以及房地产自身结构的协调关系四个方面出发构建了重庆市房地产市场风险预警的指标体系。最后，研究结合重庆市2002-2013年的房地产相关数据，采用综合模预警拟法以及自回归移动平均模型对2014-2015年的重庆市房地产市场风险进行了综合预警。结果显示，2014年至2015年重庆市房地产市场将延续2013年下半年的发展趋势持续走高，且极有可能在2015年突破警戒线出现市场过热。为防止重庆市房地产市场风险进一步扩大，文章最后尝试从房地产开发企业与政府两个方面给出了相应的规避措施。
[Abstract]:The real estate market as an important consumer market and investment market in China, its development trend has been paid close attention to. With the reform of housing system and the acceleration of urbanization process. In recent years, China's real estate industry has made rapid development, the market presents a situation of both supply and marketing. On the one hand, the investment in real estate development has been increasing in the proportion of fixed assets investment. The balance of loans related to real estate also rose rapidly; On the other hand, the price of commercial housing has also increased substantially, the domestic and foreign on whether the current housing prices are reasonable, whether there is a bubble in the real estate market has also been discussed in recent years. With the acceleration of urbanization and the development of Chongqing's overall economy, the transfer of rural population and the increase of foreign population have brought opportunities for Chongqing's urban development and real estate development. More and more development enterprises and speculators enter Chongqing real estate market, which makes the development environment of Chongqing real estate market more complex. Therefore, it is more important for the stakeholders in the real estate market to understand the possible risks in the real estate market and take effective measures to avoid them. This paper first introduces the general theory of real estate market risk early warning, and analyzes the formation of real estate market risk in detail. Secondly. This paper has carried on the detailed analysis to the Chongqing real estate market development present situation, and considered the Chongqing real estate market as a whole to run relatively smoothly, unifies this present situation which the Chongqing real estate market develops. This article uses the literature statistics method and the factor analysis method unifies the Chongqing real estate economy development present situation, from the real estate industry and the national economy coordination relations, the real estate industry own growth speed. Real estate market supply and demand as well as the coordination of the real estate structure of the four aspects of the construction of Chongqing real estate market risk warning index system. The study combines the real estate related data of Chongqing from 2002 to 2013. This paper uses the synthetic model early warning method and the autoregressive moving average model to carry on the comprehensive early warning to the real estate market risk of Chongqing in 2014-2015. The result shows. 2014 to 2015 Chongqing real estate market will continue to 2013's second half of the development trend continued to rise. And it is very likely to break through the warning line in 2015 and appear market overheating. In order to prevent the risk of the real estate market in Chongqing to further expand. Finally, this paper tries to give the corresponding evading measures from two aspects of real estate development enterprises and government.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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