天然橡胶价格波动影响因素与风险防范研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 00:13

本文关键词：天然橡胶价格波动影响因素与风险防范研究　出处：《中国石油大学(华东)》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,天然橡胶的需求量和产出量之间的矛盾日益突出。自2002年开始,我国超过美国成为世界第一大天然橡胶进口国,目前我国天然橡胶对外进口依存度超过2/3,自给率低于国际安全警戒线的30%的标准。这种依赖性导致我国成为天然橡胶国际市场价格的被动接受者。天然橡胶是四大工业原料之一,作为战略物资,其价格频繁巨幅的变化,不仅会影响下游行业的发展,而且更会影响国民经济的发展和经济安全。因此,深入研究天然橡胶价格波动的影响因素,提出合理规避天然橡胶价格波动风险的策略,对于保证我国橡胶行业和国民经济稳定、快速、持续增长,都具有重要的意义。文章在微观经济学供需理论、产业安全理论和天然橡胶期货市场理论等理论的指导下,从长期和短期两大方面探讨天然橡胶价格影响因素,并分别通过向量自回归模型(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VEC)对影响因素进行实证研究。其中长期因素主要从供给和需求因素两个角度出发,重点分析自然因素、主产国国家政策、合成橡胶的替代作用、用胶产业四个方面的影响;短期因素则主要分析期货市场、道琼斯指数、美元指数、国际原油价格、储备库存五方面因素对天然橡胶价格的影响。实证分析结果表明,长期因素中需求量影响天胶价格的周期大致为4-5年,供给量对天胶价格的影响为持续长期的;短期因素中天然橡胶期货价格对天胶价格影响最大,前期期货价格对橡胶价格成正向的影响,期货价格对数每提高1%,橡胶价格将以对数的形式提高1.153%。根据分析结果提出橡胶价格波动的风险防范策略。应对长期因素方面主要以夺取定价权为目的,提出了提高市场保障能力、降低依赖度、平衡供需矛盾三方面的建议;应对短期因素方面提出了完善期货市场、加快推进人民币国际化进程、尽快推出我国原油期货交易品种三个方面的建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the contradiction between the demand and output of natural rubber is becoming increasingly prominent. Since 2002, China has surpassed the United States to become the largest importer of natural rubber in the world. At present, the degree of dependence on foreign imports of natural rubber in China is more than 2/3. The self-sufficiency rate is lower than the 30% standard of the international security warning line. This dependence has led China to become a passive receiver of the international market price of natural rubber, which is one of the four major industrial raw materials and as a strategic material. The frequent and huge price changes will not only affect the development of downstream industries, but also affect the development of the national economy and economic security. Therefore, in-depth study of natural rubber price fluctuation factors. The strategy of avoiding the risk of price fluctuation of natural rubber is of great significance to ensure the stability, rapid and sustained growth of the rubber industry and national economy in China. This paper is based on the theory of supply and demand in microeconomics. Under the guidance of industry safety theory and natural rubber futures market theory, this paper discusses the influence factors of natural rubber price from the long-term and short-term aspects. And through the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VEC) to carry on the empirical research to the influencing factors, its medium and long term factors mainly from the supply and the demand factor two angles. It mainly analyzes the natural factors, the national policies of the main producing countries, the substitution role of synthetic rubber and the influence of rubber industry in four aspects. Short-term factors mainly analyze the impact of futures market, Dow Jones index, dollar index, international crude oil price, reserve stock on the price of natural rubber. Among the long-term factors, the period of demand affecting the price of sky-gum is about 4-5 years, and the effect of supply quantity on the price of sky-gum is lasting for a long time. Among the short-term factors, the natural rubber futures price has the greatest influence on the Tianji price, and the early futures price has a positive effect on the rubber price, and the logarithm of the futures price increases by 1%. The rubber price will be increased by 1.153 in the form of logarithm. According to the analysis results, the risk prevention strategy of rubber price fluctuation is put forward. The purpose of dealing with the long-term factors is mainly to seize the pricing power. Three suggestions are put forward to improve the ability of market security, reduce dependence and balance the contradiction between supply and demand. In view of short-term factors, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to perfect the futures market, speed up the internationalization of RMB, and introduce the varieties of crude oil futures trading in China as soon as possible.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.7;F224

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