中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的动态关系分析

发布时间：2018-01-07 07:00

本文关键词：中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的动态关系分析　出处：《山东理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国的经济实现了飞跃式发展，经济实力空前增强，而随之而来的是能源消费和碳排放量的急剧增长，，目前，我国的能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量都位居全球第二位。发展低碳经济作为协调社会经济发展、保障能源安全与应对气候变化的基本途径，已得到世界各国普遍认同。我国正处于工业化和新型城镇化发展的重要时期，经济增长与资源、环境约束的矛盾日益突出，随着低碳经济的加速与深入发展，传统的高碳经济发展模式面临严峻挑战，发展低碳经济势在必行。能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的关系是一个复杂的系统关系。一方面，能源作为经济增长的物质基础和助推器，是经济发展的必要条件；另一方面，能源消费导致了碳排放的产生，影响了经济发展的质量。因此，在能源消费和碳排放的双重约束下，如何保持经济的持续、稳定、绿色、健康发展是一个亟待解决的关键性问题。如何在发展低碳经济的道路上协调好能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者的关系尤为重要。关于此方面的研究，很多学者只考察能源消费与经济增长，碳排放与经济增长两者之间的关系，而对于能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的关系的研究却相对较少。本文在对国内外相关文献梳理总结的基础上，分别基于全国范围和东中西部地区，对1990—2009年能源消费、碳排放和经济增长数据进行了统计分析与比较，发现我国的能源消费、碳排放和经济增长，无论是从量的角度还是从增速角度都位居世界前列，同时呈现较为显著的区域差异性，东部地区经济发达，能源消费与碳排放较多，中部地区次之，西部地区经济落后，能源消费与碳排放最少，但增速较快，发展空间大。之后本文对能源消费和碳排放的影响因素作了实证分析，发现能源消费与经济发展水平、产业结构、技术水平和城市化水平存在长期的均衡关系，而碳排放与经济增长、产业结构、人口数量、能源价格、能源效率和生活水平等因素存在着长期协整关系。在此基础上，本文对能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的动态关系进行了实证研究，研究表明：能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间存在长期协整关系。能源消费是经济增长和碳排放的原因，经济增长也是能源消费和碳排放的原因，同时碳排放也是经济增长的原因；能源消费对经济增长和碳排放，经济增长对能源消费和碳排放的影响都是正向的，其作用机制基本相同，影响程度有所差异。在此研究基础上，本文提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved a leapfrog development, the economic strength of unprecedented enhancement, and followed by a sharp increase in energy consumption and carbon emissions, at present. China's total energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are ranked second in the world. The development of low-carbon economy as a basic way to coordinate social and economic development, to ensure energy security and to deal with climate change. China is in an important period of industrialization and new urbanization. The contradiction between economic growth and resources, environmental constraints is increasingly prominent, with the acceleration and in-depth development of low-carbon economy. The traditional development mode of high-carbon economy is facing severe challenge, so it is imperative to develop low-carbon economy. The relationship among energy consumption, carbon emission and economic growth is a complex systematic relationship. On the one hand, as the material basis and booster of economic growth, energy is the necessary condition of economic development. On the other hand, energy consumption leads to the generation of carbon emissions and affects the quality of economic development. Therefore, under the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, how to keep the economy sustainable, stable and green. How to coordinate energy consumption on the road of developing low-carbon economy, the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth is particularly important. Regarding this aspect of research, many scholars only examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economic growth, but for energy consumption. The research on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is relatively few. This paper summarizes the relevant literature at home and abroad, respectively based on the national scope and the central and western regions. The data of energy consumption, carbon emission and economic growth from 1990 to 2009 are statistically analyzed and compared. It is found that China's energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. Whether from the perspective of volume or from the point of view of growth rate of the world are in the forefront, at the same time showing a more significant regional differences, economic development in the eastern region, energy consumption and carbon emissions are more, followed by the central region. The western region is backward in economy, the energy consumption and carbon emissions are the least, but the growth rate is fast, and the space for development is large. Then, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions. It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and economic development level, industrial structure, technology level and urbanization level, while carbon emissions and economic growth, industrial structure, population size, energy price. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between energy efficiency and living standard. On this basis, the dynamic relationship among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is studied empirically in this paper. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. Energy consumption is the cause of economic growth and carbon emissions, and economic growth is also the reason of energy consumption and carbon emissions. At the same time, carbon emissions are also the cause of economic growth; The impact of energy consumption on economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth on energy consumption and carbon emissions are positive, its mechanism is basically the same, the impact degree is different. This paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：山东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F205;F124.1

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