实际汇率对失业率的影响

发布时间：2018-01-07 08:38

本文关键词：实际汇率对失业率的影响　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球化的不断深化,中国面临着越来越复杂的国内外环境,人民币日趋增加的升值压力以及国内越发严峻的就业形势都是中国亟待解决的问题。本文按照产品是否销往国外,资本要素投入是否来自国外将一国企业分为四类。分别讨论各类企业的劳动投入函数,经过加总构造了开放经济条件下一国总的劳动投入函数。对总需求函数进行数理分析,讨论了开放经济下失业率的影响因素,探讨了实际有效汇率对失业率影响的渠道,从数理上证明了过去学者的部分观点。随后,按照汇率能否完全传递将国家分为大国开放经济体与小国开放经济体,从理论上证明了价格控制能够抑制汇率对失业率的影响。文章在理论模型的基础上,选取适当的变量,构造了计量模型。利用全世界177个国家,1990-2012年的面板数据,采用GMM估计方法,评估了开放经济条件下失业率的影响因素。研究表明：工资、经济发展规模、工作能力因素对于失业率影响显著,其中过高的工资需求会导致失业率上升；经济发展规模增加、工作能力提高会使得失业率降低；通货膨胀与失业率之间存在着微弱的反向关系,印证了菲利普斯曲线的分析；汇率增加、开放度增加会导致失业率增加；外商资本流入、工业产值份额增加会导致失业率减少。在原计量模型的基础上分别加入汇率与开放度、要素密集度、资本投入三个变量的交叉项,检验了汇率通过开放度、要素密集度、资本投入三个渠道变量对失业率产生的影响。研究发现开放度越高,实际汇率对失业率的影响越强,产品市场开放与要素市场开放影响各异；以劳动要素密集型产品为主的国家,实际汇率对其失业率影响越强；FDI作为资本投入渠道的一部分与汇率联系微弱,汇率难以通过FDI渠道对失业率产生影响；只在理论上证明了资本投入渠道对失业率的影响是由替代效应与互补效应共同决定的,二者方向相反。文章最后根据理论分析及实证检验的结果,结合中国的实际情况,为中国如何在复杂的外部环境下降低本国失业率提出了部分政策建议,并对文章未来在那些方面可以进行改进与拓展,提出了部分看法。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of globalization, China is facing more and more complex domestic and international environment. The increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the increasingly severe employment situation in China are the urgent problems to be solved in China. This paper is based on whether the products are sold abroad. Whether the capital factor input comes from abroad divides a country's enterprise into four categories and discusses the labor input function of each kind of enterprise respectively. The total labor input function of a country under the condition of open economy is constructed. The mathematical analysis of the aggregate demand function is carried out and the influencing factors of unemployment rate in open economy are discussed. This paper discusses the influence of real effective exchange rate on unemployment rate, and proves some viewpoints of past scholars. Then, according to whether the exchange rate can completely transfer, countries are divided into large open economies and small open economies. It is proved theoretically that price control can restrain the influence of exchange rate on the unemployment rate. Based on the theoretical model, this paper constructs an econometric model based on the appropriate variables and makes use of 177 countries in the world. Panel data from 1990 to 2012, using GMM estimation method, to evaluate the factors affecting the unemployment rate in the open economy. The study shows that wage and economic development scale. The ability to work has a significant impact on the unemployment rate, in which excessive wage demand will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate; An increase in the scale of economic development and an increase in working capacity will reduce the unemployment rate; There is a weak reverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, which confirms the analysis of Phillips curve. An increase in the exchange rate and an increase in openness will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate; The increase of the share of industrial output value will lead to the decrease of unemployment rate. On the basis of the original econometric model, the intersections of exchange rate and openness, factor intensity and capital input are added respectively. This paper examines the influence of the three variables of exchange rate on the unemployment rate through openness, factor intensity and capital investment. The study shows that the higher the openness, the stronger the impact of the real exchange rate on the unemployment rate. The influence of product market opening and factor market opening is different; In countries with labor-intensive products, the real exchange rate has a stronger impact on the unemployment rate; As a part of the capital input channel, FDI has a weak relationship with the exchange rate, so it is difficult for the exchange rate to influence the unemployment rate through the FDI channel. It is only theoretically proved that the influence of capital investment channels on unemployment rate is determined by the substitution effect and the complementary effect. The direction of the two is opposite. Finally, according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical test. Combined with the actual situation in China, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to reduce the unemployment rate in China under the complicated external environment, and puts forward some views on which aspects of the article can be improved and expanded in the future.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.7;F249.1

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