我国农村金融发展对农村居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 11:16

本文关键词：我国农村金融发展对农村居民消费的影响研究　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国农村居民的消费水平较低，消费行为十分谨慎。然而，，农村居民消费潜力巨大，拉动我国农村居民消费是扩大国内需求，转变经济发展方式的内在要求。金融作为现代经济的核心，对消费具有不可忽视的作用。因此，发展农村金融对于提高农村居民消费具有重大现实意义。本文基于西方消费理论和金融发展理论，分析影响消费的因素。从两个角度探究农村金融发展对农村居民消费的影响机理，直接影响机理强调农村消费信贷对消费的作用，间接影响机理强调农村金融发展通过提高农村居民收入水平、优化农村消费环境、降低预防性储蓄，影响农村居民消费。在此基础上，本文建立向量自回归模型，在向量自回归模型的基础上构建向量误差修正模型并进行格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等，考察和分析我国农村金融发展与农村居民消费之间的长期稳定关系、短期动态关系以及因果关系等。从实证结果看，农村居民金融发展、农村居民纯收入增加、农村环境改善是农村居民消费支出增加的格兰杰原因，农村居民纯收入增加对农村居民消费影响最为显著，而农村金融发展对农村居民消费影响较弱，这说明我国农村金融发展比较滞后，但是农村金融发展对农村居民消费具有68%的方差贡献率，因此，农村金融发展对于农村居民消费的提升具有重要作用。根据理论和实证研究结论，本文从四个角度提出农村金融拉动农村居民消费的政策建议。即发展农村消费信贷促进提前消费、增强农村居民收入提高消费能力、加强农村基础设施建设优化消费环境、发展农村保险释放消费潜力。
[Abstract]:The consumption level of rural residents in China is low, and the consumption behavior is very cautious. However, the consumption potential of rural residents is huge, and the consumption of rural residents in China is to expand the domestic demand. As the core of modern economy, finance plays an important role in consumption. Therefore, the development of rural finance is of great practical significance to the improvement of rural residents' consumption. Based on western consumption theory and financial development theory, this paper analyzes the factors that affect consumption, and probes into the influence mechanism of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption from two angles. Direct influence mechanism emphasizes the role of rural consumer credit to consumption, indirect influence mechanism emphasizes rural financial development through raising rural residents' income level, optimizing rural consumption environment and reducing preventive savings. Affect the consumption of rural residents. On this basis, this paper establishes the vector autoregressive model, constructs vector error correction model on the basis of vector autoregressive model and carries out Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. This paper investigates and analyzes the long-term stable relationship between rural financial development and rural residents' consumption, short-term dynamic relationship and causality and so on. From the empirical results, the rural residents' net income increases with the development of rural finance. The improvement of rural environment is the Granger reason for the increase of rural residents' consumption expenditure. The increase of rural residents' net income has the most significant impact on rural residents' consumption, while the rural financial development has a weak impact on rural residents' consumption. This shows that the development of rural finance is lagging behind, but the rural financial development has a contribution rate of 68% variance to the consumption of rural residents. Rural financial development plays an important role in promoting rural residents' consumption. According to the conclusion of theoretical and empirical research, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations of rural finance to stimulate rural residents' consumption from four angles, that is, to develop rural consumer credit to promote early consumption. Strengthen rural residents' income, improve consumption ability, strengthen rural infrastructure construction, optimize consumption environment, and develop rural insurance to release consumption potential.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.35;F323.8

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