基于系统动力学的吉林省物流行业碳足迹研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 10:22

本文关键词：基于系统动力学的吉林省物流行业碳足迹研究　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，气候问题成为全球性问题，我国政府在近年也提出了发展低碳经济的目标，并在不同阶段针对碳排放强度提出了目标要求，物流行业作为能源消耗和碳排放大户，更应担起减排的责任，本文以吉林省为例，，通过对物流行业碳足迹系统的分析，提出了物流行业实现碳排放强度目标的政策建议。文章共分为六个部分，第一章主要介绍研究的背景、意义，国内外研究现状，研究目的及创新点、研究内容和技术路线；第二章通过对吉林省物流行业2005至2012年物流行业生产总值、能源消耗数据的搜集，整理出吉林省物流行业的发展现状、能源消耗现状，并在此基础上分析了碳足迹现状；第三章总结了物流碳足迹系统的影响因素，为后面系统动力学的建模提供指标；第四章根据第三章的因素指标和第二章的相关数据为吉林省物流行业的碳足迹系统建模，通过对不同参量的调控，模拟了不同情境下物流碳足迹系统对碳排放强度目标的实现情况，找到影响物流碳足迹系统的关键因素，并通过不同的参数组合，找到吉林省物流行业实现碳排放强度目标的路径；第五章根据第四章结论提出发展低碳物流、实现碳排放强度目标的政策建议；第六章对全文进行了总结，并提出了研究的不足之处与未来的研究方向。通过SD模型仿真模拟，结果表明，在保持现有的物流行业增长速度、能源利用效率、能源结构的情况下，吉林省物流行业难以实现2020年的碳排放强度目标。通过对单个变量的调控，发现优化物流运作水平对实现碳排放强度目标的作用最大，其次为提高物流行业的发展速度，能源结构的改变对碳排放强度目标的实现效果甚微。通过进行不同的情景模拟，提出将物流业生产总值增长速率提高114.2%、边际能源消耗量降低46.7%，天然气在总能源中占比增至0.2可以实现碳排放强度目标。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the climate problem has become a global problem. In recent years, our government has also put forward the goal of developing low-carbon economy, and put forward the target requirements of carbon emission intensity at different stages. Logistics industry as a large consumer of energy consumption and carbon emissions should bear the responsibility of reducing emissions. This paper takes Jilin Province as an example through the analysis of the logistics industry carbon footprint system. Some policy suggestions on how to achieve the carbon emission intensity target in logistics industry are put forward. The article is divided into six parts. The first chapter mainly introduces the background, significance, domestic and foreign research status, research purpose and innovation, research content and technical route; The second chapter through the logistics industry in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2012 logistics industry gross domestic product, energy consumption data collection, collate Jilin Province logistics industry development situation, energy consumption status. Based on this, the present situation of carbon footprint is analyzed. The third chapter summarizes the influence factors of the logistics carbon footprint system, and provides the index for the modeling of the later system dynamics. According to the factor index of the third chapter and the related data of the second chapter, the 4th chapter models the carbon footprint system of Jilin logistics industry, through the regulation of different parameters. Simulation of logistics carbon footprint system under different circumstances to achieve the carbon emission intensity target, find out the key factors affecting the logistics carbon footprint system, and through different combinations of parameters. Find out the path of realizing carbon emission intensity target in Jilin logistics industry; Chapter 5th, according to the conclusion of Chapter 4th, puts forward some policy recommendations for developing low-carbon logistics and realizing the target of carbon emission intensity. Chapter 6th summarizes the full text, and puts forward the deficiency of the research and the future research direction. Through the SD model simulation, the results show that, in the case of maintaining the existing logistics industry growth rate, energy use efficiency, energy structure. Jilin logistics industry is difficult to achieve the 2020 carbon emission intensity target. Through the control of single variables, it is found that optimizing logistics operation level is the most important to achieve carbon emission intensity target. Secondly, in order to improve the development speed of logistics industry, the change of energy structure has little effect on the realization of carbon emission intensity target. It is proposed that increasing the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) of logistics industry by 114.2%, reducing the marginal energy consumption by 46.7%, and increasing the proportion of natural gas to 0.2% of the total energy can achieve the carbon emission intensity target.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F259.27

【参考文献】