货币政策对房地产区域市场发展的影响差异研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 09:08

本文关键词：货币政策对房地产区域市场发展的影响差异研究　出处：《湖南科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着房地产市场的快速发展，房地产价格持续上涨，如何促进房地产市场的稳健发展受到了社会各界的普遍关注。作为资本密集型行业的房地产业，货币政策在对其有效调控中发挥了重要作用。然而，作为一个地域广阔、区域经济发展极度不均衡的经济发展中国家，我国房地产市场的发展存在一定区域差异。在探讨货币政策影响房地产市场发展的过程中，考虑货币政策影响房地产市场发展的区域差异性是十分必要的。通过相关文献的查阅发现许多学者对货币政策影响房地产市场发展的研究是以货币政策与房地产市场之间的相互关系为研究对象，没有考虑到房地产市场存在显著的异质性。同时，部分研究主要是从货币政策影响区域房地产价格变动差异的视角反映是否存在区域效应，没有进一步深入到房地产需求和供给层面来研究货币政策影响房地产市场的区域差异性。因而，本文以供给、需求与价格为视角，在以往学者的研究基础上，从货币政策有效性理论、最优货币区理论以及货币政策非对称性理论等经济学经典理论出发，对货币政策影响房地产区域市场发展进行理论分析。并且选取全国35个大中城市1999年至2012年的数据作为样本，运用面板数据模型、误差修正模型以及VAR模型和脉冲响应函数对货币政策影响房地产市场区域差异进行了实证研究。本文研究结果表明：我国货币政策对不同地区的房地产市场需求、供给以及价格产生了不同程度的影响，支持了我国货币政策对房地产市场发展的影响具有区域差异性。在需求方面，数量型的货币政策工具对中西部的长期影响大于东部地区，中部地区相对于东部和西部地区在短期内对贷款余额的反映较为明显。在供给方面，金融机构贷款余额对东、中部地区房地产供给的长期影响大于西部地区，而货币供给量(M2)对中西部地区的长期影响要大于东部地区。在短期内，货币供给量的变动与各个地区房地产供给量同方向变化，但对东部的影响要明显大于中西部地区。在价格方面，东部地区的房屋价格指数对贷款余额的冲击所带来的响应要明显强于中西部地区所受到的冲击。同时，东部地区房地产价格受到利率的影响也要大于中西部地区。此外，货币供给量对东部、西部地区受到的影响大于中部地区，货币供给量的增加促进了房地产投资规模的扩大以及房地产消费的增加，进而引起了房价的大幅上涨。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the real estate market, real estate prices continue to rise, how to promote the healthy development of the real estate market has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life. As the capital intensive real estate industry, monetary policy on its effective control has played an important role. However, as a vast, regional economy imbalance of economic development in developing countries, there are some regional differences in the development of China's real estate market. In the process of monetary policy affects the real estate market development, considering the regional difference of monetary policy affects the real estate market development is very necessary. By reviewing the relevant literature research found that the development of the real estate market impact scholars of the monetary policy is the relationship between the monetary policy and the real estate market as the research object, without taking into account the real estate market has significant Heterogeneity. At the same time, some researches are mainly from the impact of monetary policy changes in the regional real estate prices reflect whether there are differences in perspective of regional effect, no further to the real estate supply and demand level to study the effect of monetary policy on regional differences in the real estate market. Because of this, in order to supply, demand and price in perspective. The basis of previous researches, from the theory of the effectiveness of monetary policy, based on the theory of optimum currency area and monetary policy asymmetry theory and classical theory of economics, on the impact of monetary policy regional real estate market development were analyzed. And the selection of the national 35 large and medium-sized city from 1999 to 2012 as the sample data, using panel data model model, and VAR model and impulse response function of the regional real estate market differences in the effects of monetary policy makes an empirical research on the error correction.
The results of this study show that China's monetary policy on the real estate market demand in different regions, the influence of supply and price support, influence the development of China's monetary policy on the real estate market has regional difference. On the demand side, a number of long-term impact type monetary policy tools in the Midwest than the East in the central region relative to the eastern and western regions in the short term loans to reflect the more obvious. In the aspect of supply, loan balance of financial institutions in the east central region, the long-term impact of real estate supply than the western region, and the money supply (M2) on the long-term impact of the Midwest is greater than the eastern region. In the short term the change in the same direction, change and all areas of the real estate supply of money supply, but the effect is significantly greater than that of the eastern part of the Midwest. In terms of price, Eastern In response to the impact area housing price index for the loans brought to be significantly stronger than the central and western regions the impact on real estate prices. At the same time, the eastern region is the impact of interest rates is greater than the central and western regions. In addition, the money supply to the East, the western region is greater than the central region, the increase of money supply to expand the scale of real estate investment and increase the consumption of real estate, which caused a sharp rise in prices.

【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

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