重庆市城镇化建设与经济增长关系的统计分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 23:25

本文关键词：重庆市城镇化建设与经济增长关系的统计分析　出处：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：重庆作为我国最大的直辖市，其经济的发展状况对西南地区乃至全国都会产生巨大的影响。与北京、天津、上海等三个直辖市比较，重庆市地形崎岖，农业人口众多，城镇化建设落后于该三个直辖市。所以，探讨重庆城镇化建设进程与经济发展之间的关系具有重要的现实意义。论文从重庆市以及重庆下辖区县两个角度，研究了重庆城镇化建设进程与经济发展之间的关系，所做的主要研究工作和取得的成果如下： 1.分析重庆市城镇化建设与经济发展间关系：选择重庆市城镇化率与人均GDP指标，数据区间为1997年—2012年，用R软件、Eviews软件，建立了城镇化率与人均GDP的协整模型、误差修正模型，进行了格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析，以探讨城镇化建设对经济的促进作用问题。 2.分析重庆市新型城镇化建设与经济发展间关系：选择1997年—2012年14个反映重庆市新型城镇化建设水平的指标和人均GDP指标，通过R软件对指标进行主成分分析，并进行主成分回归，，成功消除变量间的多重共线性，建立了相关回归模型以探讨新型城镇化建设与经济发展间的相互作用。 3.分析重庆市四大功能区城镇化建设与经济发展间关系：选择重庆市38个区县的相关数据，根据所划分功能区计算出各功能区城镇化率及人均GDP指标，数据区间为2003年—2012年，通过Eviews软件建立面板数据模型，以对比讨论各功能区城镇化率提高与经济发展之间的相互作用。 4.在上述分析所得模型中，证实了城镇化率与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系，二者间在短期内有较强的正向相互促进作用。分地区而言，城镇化率较高的地区同时人均GDP也较高，而经济发展水平较高的地区城镇化率的提高对经济发展的促进作用要小于经济较为落后的地区，进一步证实了城镇化建设与经济发展间存在密切联系。并在此基础上对重庆市推进城镇化建设的重点方向提出了响应的建议。
[Abstract]:Chongqing as the largest municipality directly under the Central Government in China, its economic development will have a huge impact on the southwest region and even the whole country. Compared with Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, Chongqing has rugged terrain. The construction of urbanization lags behind those of the three municipalities. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between the process of urbanization and economic development in Chongqing. This paper studies the relationship between the process of urbanization and economic development in Chongqing from the two angles of Chongqing and the counties under its jurisdiction. The main research work and the results obtained are as follows: 1. Analyze the relationship between urbanization construction and economic development in Chongqing: select the index of urbanization rate and per capita GDP in Chongqing. The data range is from 1997 to 2012, using R software. Eviews software, the co-integration model of urbanization rate and per capita GDP, error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are carried out. In order to explore the role of urbanization to promote the economy. 2. To analyze the relationship between new urbanization construction and economic development in Chongqing: select 14 indexes and GDP per capita from 1997 to 2012 to reflect the level of new urbanization construction in Chongqing. Principal component analysis (PCA) and principal component regression (PCA) were carried out by R software to eliminate multiple collinearity between variables. A correlation regression model was established to study the interaction between new urbanization construction and economic development. 3. Analyze the relationship between urbanization construction and economic development in four functional districts of Chongqing: select the relevant data of 38 districts and counties in Chongqing. The urbanization rate and per capita GDP index of each functional area are calculated according to the dividing function area. The data range is from 2003 to 2012. The panel data model is established by Eviews software. The interaction between the increase of urbanization rate and economic development in each functional area is discussed in this paper. 4. In the above models, it is proved that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization rate and economic growth, and there is a strong positive interaction between them in the short term. At the same time, the per capita GDP is also higher in the areas with higher urbanization rate, and the promotion effect of urbanization rate in the areas with higher economic development level is smaller than that in the less economically backward areas. It is further confirmed that there is a close relationship between urbanization construction and economic development, and on this basis, some suggestions are put forward in response to the key direction of promoting urbanization construction in Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

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