风力发电项目投资风险分析及评价

发布时间：2018-01-10 00:14

本文关键词：风力发电项目投资风险分析及评价　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年,中国风电产业取得长足的进步。但是由于缺乏相应的系统的战略规划以及管理水平,中国风电企业在风力发电项目的投资选择上面临着许多挑战。因此,中国风电企业如何正确认识风电市场,正确识别风力发电项目投资时的风险,并进行及时的风险规避,是中国风电企业的主要课题。本文通过简要分析全球风资源的分布及其潜力,从大型风电技术、海上风电技术和风电设备厂商等几个方面进行了风电产业未来发展趋势分析,从国家政策波动和发电成本过高等方面分析了全球风电产业发展面临的问题和国内风电产业国际化发展所面临的问题。利用风险分析理论模型,如PEST模型、波特五力模型、SWOT模型、层次分析模型等,对风力发电项目投资进行了详细的分析,在以上理论分析的基础上,提出了风力发电项目投资风险的主要因素包括政策风险、技术风险、经济风险等。在综合比较各种评价方法的基础上,综合各因素建立了风力发电投资风险指标体系,结合实例,应用ANP法对各要素赋权,用PROMETHEE法对备选方案排序,选出最佳方案。结合龙源电力集团的情况,对龙源风力发电项目进行投资风险实证分析。最后,从加强了解专项法律政策、积极开展投资并购活动、全面拓展海外融资渠道、主动提升人力资源管理、紧密联合国内设备厂商、重点聚焦北美风电市场、倾力打造清洁环保品牌、适度采用本土经营战略、完善运营风险管理机制、有效降低企业运营成本等方面提出了风力发电项目投资风险规避措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's wind power industry has made considerable progress, but due to the lack of a corresponding system of strategic planning and management level. Chinese wind power enterprises face many challenges in the investment choice of wind power generation projects. Therefore, how to correctly understand the wind power market and identify the risks of wind power projects investment in Chinese wind power enterprises. And timely risk-aversion, is the main topic of wind power enterprises in China. By analyzing the distribution and potential of global wind resources, this paper analyzes the future development trend of wind power industry from several aspects, such as large-scale wind power technology, offshore wind power technology and wind power equipment manufacturers. This paper analyzes the problems in the development of global wind power industry and the international development of domestic wind power industry from the aspects of the fluctuation of national policy and the high cost of power generation, and makes use of the theoretical model of risk analysis. For example, PEST model, Porter five-force model SWOT model, analytic hierarchy process model and so on, the investment of wind power project is analyzed in detail, on the basis of the above theoretical analysis. Put forward the main factors of investment risk of wind power project, including policy risk, technical risk, economic risk, etc. On the basis of comprehensive comparison of various evaluation methods. The risk index system of wind power investment is established by synthesizing various factors. Combined with an example, the ANP method is applied to the weighting of each element, and the PROMETHEE method is used to rank the alternatives. According to the situation of Longyuan Electric Power Group, the investment risk of Longyuan Wind Power Project is analyzed empirically. Finally, we should strengthen the understanding of special laws and policies, and actively carry out investment mergers and acquisitions activities. Fully expand overseas financing channels, actively enhance human resources management, closely associated with domestic equipment manufacturers, focus on the North American wind power market, efforts to create clean and environmental protection brand, appropriate use of local business strategy. The measures to avoid the investment risk of wind power project are put forward in the aspects of perfecting the operational risk management mechanism and effectively reducing the operating cost of the enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F283

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