安徽省生态足迹与可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 00:32

本文关键词：安徽省生态足迹与可持续发展研究　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,安徽省在取得工业化和城市化辉煌成就的同时,面临日益严峻的水污染和雾霾天气等环境问题。为促进经济社会与人口资源环境协调发展,安徽省在第九次党代会上提出“生态强省”和“美好安徽”的战略目标,并在《安徽省“十二五”环境保护规划》中要求提高资源环境承载力,走可持续发展之路,故本文基于生态足迹理论分析了安徽省的人均生态足迹账户和可持续发展状况。首先,在梳理生态足迹相关概念及研究成果的基础上,基于可变世界产量法和时间序列数据计算了安徽省1995-2011年的人均生态足迹账户,结果表明安徽省的人均生态足迹由1.02公顷上升至2.24公顷,而其同期的人均生态承载力仅从0.478公顷上升到0.663公顷；人均生态足迹的大幅增加使安徽省人均生态赤字由0.54公顷上升至1.58公顷。具体而言,在生态足迹方面,安徽省除耕地生态足迹人均占有量稍微下降外,其化石能源地、建成地、牧草地、林地和水域的人均生态足迹均出现较大幅度的上升；在生态承载力方面,安徽省除水域生态承载力的人均占有量略微下降外,其耕地、牧草地、林地、建成地的人均生态承载力均有所增加；就生态赤字而言,安徽省除耕地和建成地处于生态盈余状态外,其牧草地、林地、水域及化石能源用地均为生态赤字且赤字分别从1995年的0.014公顷、0.004公顷、0.046公顷和0.527公顷上升至2011年的0.089公顷、0.019公顷、0.119公顷及1.48公顷。其次,利用万元GDP生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数、人口赤字评价了安徽省的资源利用效率、消费结构合理性和人口超载程度。其中,在资源利用效率方面,安徽省的资源利用效率虽不断提高,但与我国平均水平及江苏、浙江等地相比,其资源利用效率较低。在消费结构合理性方面,化石能源足迹增加导致安徽省消费结构的合理性不断降低。在人口超载程度方面,人均生态足迹的过快上升使安徽省适度人口规模不断下降,其人口赤字和人口超载问题日益加剧。此外,运用STIRPAT模型分析了安徽省生态足迹不断上升的驱动因素,得出单位GDP能耗对安徽省人均生态足迹的影响并不显著；安徽省的人均生态足迹主要受第二产业占GDP比重、人均消费支出影响且与它们正相关。最后,基于研究结论从提高生态承载力,优化产业结构,减少化石能源消费,控制人口规模、提倡合理消费,将生态足迹账户纳入政府考核体系等方面提出政策建议,并对未来研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Anhui province has made brilliant achievements in the process of industrialization and the city at the same time, facing the increasingly serious water pollution and haze weather and other environmental problems. In order to promote the coordinated development of economy and population, resources and environment, Anhui province put forward the "ecological province" and "beautiful Anhui" strategic goal in the Ninth Party Congress, and in "Anhui Province," 12th Five-Year "environmental protection plan > requirements to improve the carrying capacity of resources and environment, take the road of sustainable development, this paper based on the theory of ecological footprint analysis in Anhui Province, the per capita ecological footprint accounts and sustainable development.
First of all, the basic concepts and research achievements in combing the ecological footprint, per capita ecological footprint of Anhui province in 1995-2011 account to calculate the variable world production method and based on the time series data, results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Anhui province from 1.02 hectares to 2.24 hectares rise, the per capita ecological carrying capacity over the same period from only 0.478 hectares up to 0.663 hectares; the per capita ecological footprint increased the per capita ecological deficit in Anhui province from 0.54 hectares to 1.58 hectares of rose. Specifically, in terms of ecological footprint in Anhui Province, cultivated land ecological footprint per capita are slightly decreased, the fossil energy land, construction land, grassland, forest and water per capita ecological footprint there were increased greatly; the ecological carrying capacity in Anhui Province, the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased slightly in the waters, the cultivated land, grassland, forest land, construction As the per capita ecological carrying capacity increased; ecological deficit in Anhui Province, in addition to cultivated land and built in ecological surplus, the grassland, woodland, waters and fossil energy land for ecological deficit and the deficit respectively from 1995 to 0.014 hectares, 0.004 hectares, 0.046 hectares and 0.527 hectares to rise in 2011 0.089 hectares, 0.019 hectares, 0.119 hectares and 1.48 hectares.
Secondly, using GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index, population deficit of Anhui province with evaluate the resource utilization efficiency, consumption structure and population overload degree. Among them, the resource utilization efficiency, the efficiency is to improve the use of resources in Anhui Province, but with the average level of our country and Jiangsu, compared to Zhejiang and the resource utilization efficiency is low. The rationality of consumption structure, increase the fossil energy footprint in Anhui province led to rationality of consumption structure is continuously decreasing. In population overload level, the per capita ecological footprint on the rise too fast to the appropriate scale of Anhui province population continued to decline, the population deficit and population overload problems become more and more serious.
In addition, the use of STIRPAT model to analyze the driving factors of the ecological footprint of Anhui province rising, the unit GDP energy consumption per capita ecological footprint of Anhui province is not significant; the per capita ecological footprint of Anhui province is mainly affected by the second industry accounted for the proportion of GDP, per capita consumption expenditure and their effects are related.
Finally, based on the conclusions, policy recommendations are put forward from the aspects of improving ecological carrying capacity, optimizing industrial structure, reducing fossil energy consumption, controlling population size, promoting rational consumption, and integrating ecological footprint accounts into government assessment system.

【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

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