影响GDP增长的经济因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-13 05:17

本文关键词：影响GDP增长的经济因素分析　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过2011年的《中国统计年鉴》收集了中国从1978年至2010年近三十年的数据，包括能源消费总量、就业人员、居民消费水平、农业总产值以及社会消费品零售总额，用于定量研究。在定量分析研究时，用到了相关分析、回归分析及组合预测等数理统计方法，利用SPSS16.0, EVIEWS6.0两种软件对各组数据进行分析得出分别得到如下结论：用线性回归分析得出农业总产值对GDP的影响不显著；各个因素的多重共线性诊断得出居民消费水平和农业总产值之间存在多重共线性关系；用协整的办法去讨论与研究各个因素之间的相互关系得到中国居民消费水平与农业总产值不仅双因果关系显著，而且二者的协整关系也是长期的；中国居民消费水平与GDP,没有显著的双因果关系，但存在一定的协整关系；中国农业总产值与GDP有显著的双因果关系，但不存在协整关系。本文中在Granger因果关系和Johansen协整关系的分析的基础上，还对中国居民消费水平与农业总产值之间进行了VEC模型的拟合，通过模型中的协整方程发现，中国居民消费水平与农业总产值之间的相关关系是负向的，而且拟合结果也被检验了，说明这个模型是有效的。通过一系列统计检验可以说明：中国GDP的增长与能源消费总量,居民消费水平有很高的相关性。其中，又以居民消费水平的影响程度最为显著。由此可以看出影响中国GDP的主要因素是居民消费水平，能源消费总量。
[Abstract]:This paper collected China from 1978 to 2010 nearly thirty years of data through the 2011 statistical yearbook Chinese < >, including the total energy consumption, employment, consumption level, agricultural total production value and total retail sales of social consumer goods, for the quantitative study. In quantitative analysis, using correlation analysis, regression analysis and forecasting such as the method of mathematical statistics, using SPSS16.0 statistical analysis, draw the following conclusions were obtained from two software EVIEWS6.0:
By linear regression analysis of the total agricultural output value of GDP is not significant; the factors of multicollinearity diagnosis of multicollinearity between the consumption level and the total agricultural output value; the relationship between using cointegration methods to discuss and study the various factors to Chinese consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value not only double significant causal relationship, and the relationship between the two CO is a long term; Chinese consumption level and GDP, no significant causal relationship between the two, but there is a cointegration relationship a significant causal relationship; double Chinese total agricultural output and GDP, but there is no cointegration relationship.
This paper based on the analysis of the relationship between Granger and Johansen causality Association on the Chinese between the consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value were fitted to the VEC model, through the model of cointegration equation between Chinese found that the consumption level of residents and the total agricultural output value of the correlation is negative, and fitting the results were also tested, shows that this model is effective.
Through a series of statistical tests show China GDP growth and the total energy consumption, there is a high correlation between the level of consumption. Among them, the influence of the consumption level of residents is the most significant. It can be seen that the main factors affecting the China GDP is the level of consumption, the total energy consumption.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F224

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