差别化住房政策对商品住房市场的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 09:10

本文关键词： 住房市场住房政策差别化政策 VAR模型　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放之后，我国房地产市场得到了飞速的发展。尤其是住房市场化之后，商品住房的价格不断攀升，上涨速度令人咋舌。而伴随着我国经济的发展，城镇化进程迅速，大量农村人口从农村开始向城市转移，并且数量越来越庞大，这一部分人对住房的需求一直高居不下。同时，伴随着房价的高涨，商品住房逐渐演变为一种投资、保值、增值的商品，面对这一投资投机需求，房价更是进一步上涨。从政府出台政策进行调控的目标以及政策出台的背景角度，可以分析出，政府出台政策的最终目标有三个，分别是实现住有所居、抑制房地产投资投机以及放缓房地产经济、防止出现房地产泡沫。本文选取了金融政策、住房信贷政策、住房土地政策、住房税收政策四项一级指标共6个二级政策指标，以及商品住房市场成交均价、成交面积，供给市场的商品住房市场总投资、供给面积、容积率、供给户型以及存量面积7项市场指标，实证分析了上海市政策实施后对商品住房市场产生的影响。分析得出，对成交均价有正向冲击效用的分别是一年期存款准备金率、存款基准利率以及税收政策，具有负的冲击效用的分别有住房信贷政策以及土地购置面积，其中一年期贷款基准利率影响最大；而对于成交面积的影响，以上六项政策中除了贷款基准利率的上升会致使成交面积增加外，其他的都是会使得成交面积减少；对商品住房总投资具有正向冲击效应的只有住房土地政策，商业银行存款准备金率、一年期存款基准利率、贷款基准利率以及商品住房信贷政策对商品住房总投资具有负的冲击效应，其中住房信贷政策贡献率最大，住房税收政策对住宅投资变化的不具有贡献率；对供给面积具有正向促进作用的只有土地购置面积；除了土地购置面积外，其他5项政策对容积率有正向作用；除了存款基准利率外，其他5项政策对90m2以下竣工价值具有同向作用。根据以上实证分析的结果，本文分别站在不同的角度提出政策制定的建议，第一是从市场指标的角度给制定相应房地产政策提出建议，另一个是从政策制定目的的角度提出相应的政策建议。另外，从实证分析中可以发现，房产税的试点——住房税收政策的实施，并没有达到预期的效果，即对市场指标的冲击作用不强，，可能是由于税收政策尚在试点，政策幅度不够大，导致对市场的影响贡献比较小。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the real estate market in China has been rapid development. Especially after the housing market, commodity housing prices continue to climb, rising at a staggering speed. And with the development of our economy. The rapid process of urbanization, a large number of rural people from rural to urban transfer, and the number of more and more large, this part of the demand for housing has been high. At the same time, with the rise of house prices. Commodity housing has gradually evolved into a kind of investment, preservation, value-added goods, facing the speculative demand for investment, housing prices are further rising. From the government policy to control the target and the background of the policy. It can be analyzed that the final goal of the government policy is to achieve housing, curb speculation in real estate investment and slow down the real estate economy, prevent the emergence of a real estate bubble. This article selects the financial policy, the housing credit policy, the housing land policy, the housing tax policy four first class indexes altogether 6 secondary policy indicators, as well as the commodity housing market transaction price, the transaction area. The total investment, supply area, volume ratio, supply type and stock area of the commodity housing market in the supply market are 7 market indicators. Empirical analysis of the impact on the commodity housing market after the implementation of policies in Shanghai. The results show that the positive impact on the average transaction price is the one-year deposit reserve ratio deposit benchmark interest rate and tax policy. The negative impact effect of housing credit policy and land acquisition area, in which the benchmark one-year loan interest rate has the greatest impact; For the impact of transaction area, the above six policies in addition to the increase in the benchmark interest rate of loans will lead to an increase in the transaction area, the other will make the transaction area reduced; Only the housing land policy, the reserve ratio of commercial banks and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposit have positive impact on the total investment of commodity housing. The benchmark interest rate of loan and the policy of commodity housing credit have negative impact effect on the total investment of commodity housing, among which the contribution rate of housing credit policy is the biggest, and the housing tax policy has no contribution rate to the change of housing investment. Only land purchase area has positive effect on supply area; In addition to land acquisition area, the other five policies have a positive impact on the volume rate; In addition to the deposit benchmark interest rate, the other five policies have the same effect on the completion value below 90 m2. According to the results of the above empirical analysis, this paper respectively put forward policy recommendations from different angles, the first is to formulate the corresponding real estate policy recommendations from the perspective of market indicators. The other is to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of the purpose of policy development. In addition, from the empirical analysis, we can find that the implementation of housing tax policy, the pilot housing tax, has not achieved the desired results. That is, the impact on market indicators is not strong, may be due to the tax policy is still in the pilot, the policy range is not large enough, resulting in the impact on the market contribution is relatively small.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】