基于住房支付能力的普通商品住宅用地价格合理性研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 11:11

本文关键词： 住房支付能力住宅用地住宅用地价格的合理性合理性判定　出处：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市住宅用地的价格在波动的过程中会出现合理性波动和非合理性波动,合理性波动是住宅用地的价格在宏观经济的影响下出现的上涨或下降,非合理性波动是在土地投机需求旺盛、政府调控不力的情况下出现的住宅地价快速和大幅度上涨,即地价泡沫；同时,住宅用地价格与我国房地产行业的合理性、国民经济的稳定及可持续发展直接相关。因此,住宅用地价格合理性研究具有重要意义。本文运用理论研究与实证研究相结合的方法,在对住宅用地价格与住房支付能力间相互关系进行阐释的基础上,建立了住宅用地有效需求价格的测算模型；同时,引入偏离度概念,将住宅用地价格偏离度用于住宅用地价格合理性判定的理论和方法体系的构建；最后,将住宅用地价格合理性判定的理论方法应用于南京市的实证研究,分别对以江南八区为代表的南京市整体住宅用地价格水平和江南八区对应的六大房地产板块住宅用地的价格水平进行合理性判定。文章的主要内容包括四部分：第一部分对住宅用地价格合理性的相关概念进行了界定,并对合理性判定的理论基础进行了阐释。从微观角度来讲,住宅用地的合理价格是以住宅用地的有效需求价格为基础的一个浮动范围,是能够尽可能满足多数家庭住房需求的住宅用地价格；住宅用地价格的合理性是对住宅用地价格是否合理的一种判定结果,当住宅用地价格不存在泡沫、处于健康状态时,住宅用地价格是合理的,反之,住宅用地价格不合理。第二部分是建立住宅用地有效需求价格的测算模型。首先,对住宅用地价格的影响因素以及住房支付能力与住宅用地价格之间的相互关系进行了分析,通过影响因素的分析可知,住房支付能力是影响住宅用地价格的重要因素,它通过影响住房的供给和需求的,进而间接影响住宅用地的价格；其次,通过住房支付能力与住宅用地价格间的相互关系分析,明确了二者相互作用的机理和过程；在以上研究的基础上,构建了住房支付能力视角下住宅用地有效需求价格的测算模型。第三部分是对住宅用地价格合理性判定的理论方法的研究。以房地产泡沫理论和偏离度理论为基础,定义了住宅地价偏离度,住宅地价偏离度即住宅用地的实际价格与有效需求价格相差的数值占有效需求价格的比重,住宅地价的偏离度可以为正向偏离也可以为负向偏离,通过判断住宅地价偏离度是否处于合理的范围内进行住宅用地价格合理性的判定。第四部分是对南京市住宅地价合理性判定的实证研究。实证研究是将城市住宅地价合理性判定的理论方法应用于实证研究中,以检验该方法的科学性、可行性。研究中以南京市普通商品住宅的楼面地价数据为样本,通过利用构建的理论方法分别对2011年南京市江南八区以及江南八区所包含各房地产板块的住宅用地价格的健康状况进行判定,研究南京市普通商品住宅用地价格的合理性,并结合经济社会实际发展情况,作进一步的分析,对土地市场的宏观调控提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:City residential will appear rationality and non rationality fluctuation of land price fluctuations in the volatility process, reasonable fluctuation is decreased or residential land prices in the macroeconomic impact of the rise in volatility is non rationality of land speculation demand, government regulation does not force under the condition of high speed and large residential land rise, namely the price bubble; at the same time, the rationality of the residential land price and China's real estate industry, stable and sustainable development of the national economy is directly related to the residential use. Therefore, the rationality of price has important significance. This paper uses the method of combining theoretical research and empirical research, based on the residential land price and the relationship between housing affordability of interpretation, with the establishment of the calculation model of effective demand price of residential; at the same time, introducing the concept of deviation degree between the residential land price. Lattice deviation is used to construct theory and method system of residential land price rationality judgment; finally, an empirical study on residential land prices, judging the rationality of theory and methods in Nanjing City, Nanjing city respectively on the home to eight Jiangnan area as the representative of the land price level and in eight areas corresponding to the six ward the real estate sector residential land price level to judge the rationality. The main contents of the article include four parts: the first part of the residential land price rationality related concepts were defined, and the basic theory of rationality is expounded. From the micro perspective, the residential price is a reasonable range to residential with the effective demand price based, can be as far as possible to meet the majority of family housing demand of residential land price; housing price is reasonable for residential use A result of the price is reasonable, when the residential land price bubble does not exist, in a state of health, and the residential land price is reasonable, and the residential land price is not reasonable. The second part is the establishment of residential land price calculation model of effective demand. Firstly, influence factors and housing price the ability to pay and the relationship between the price of residential land were analyzed by the housing, by influencing factor analysis shows that housing affordability is the key factors influencing the price of residential, it needs through the influence of the supply of housing and land, and indirectly affect the price of housing; secondly, analysis the relationship between the price of the housing affordability and housing, clear the mechanism and process of the interaction between the two; on the basis of the above research, the construction of housing affordability from the perspective of residential land effectively Calculation model of demand price. The third part is the research on the theory and method of land price on housing. By judging the rationality of the real estate bubble theory and the deviation theory, the definition of residential land price deviation, residential land price deviation is residential real prices and demand price difference value accounted for effective demand price the proportion of residential land prices can deviate from the degree of positive deviation can also be negative deviation, by judging the residential land price deviation is in the determination of reasonable price residential land within a reasonable range. The fourth part is the empirical research of residential land in Nanjing city. The rationality of empirical research is the residential price of the city's rationality the theoretical methods used in empirical research, the scientific test, the feasibility of the methods. In order to study the data of the floor price of ordinary commercial housing in Nanjing city as a sample This, by using the theory and method of Nanjing city in 2011 eight Jiangnan region and eight Jiangnan area including the real estate sector residential land prices, health status were judged, research of Nanjing ordinary commodity residential land price and rationality, combined with the actual economic and social development, to provide the theory for further analysis on the basis of macro-control of the land market.

【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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