银行信贷、供给约束与房价之间的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 21:25

本文关键词： 银行信贷供给约束房价波动面板数据模型　出处：《河北经贸大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国从上个世纪80年代开始，实行土地使用制度和住房体制改革。随着住房体制改革的深入和城镇化进程的推进，房地产业实现了快速发展。房地产业在带动相关产业的发展，增加就业，改善居民住房消费结构方面发挥了重要作用，我国于2003年将房地产业列入经济发展的支柱产业。但是伴随着房地产业的快速发展也带来了房价的持续上涨，房价的过快上涨对刚性住房需求造成巨大压力，从长期来看也不利于房地产业的持续健康发展，对其他行业的发展也会带来冲击。国家针对房价的上涨也出台了控制信贷流向房地产业、打击开发商囤积土地行为、改革土地出让方式等一系列措施，但是房价依然高位运行。本文以此为背景从理论和实证两个角度研究银行信贷、土地供应约束对房价的影响。本文首先对我国房地产市场的发展状况进行了分析，房价从2003年开始涨幅变大，房地产住宅投资规模总体呈上涨趋势，但是当前房地产住宅投资占固定资产投资的比重比前几年要低。对房地产信贷市场的观察发现横向来看银行信贷资金较多的流向房地产企业，，纵向来看开发商资金来源中国内贷款所占的比例呈下降趋势。对土地市场的分析发现，政府对土地供应量进行限制不能有效的按照市场调节需求，这与快速发展的房地产业需要大量土地供应的现实相矛盾。其次本文先从理论层面对银行信贷、供给约束影响房价波动的机制进行分析。理论分析认为银行信贷投向房地产业会刺激住房需求，另外一方面也会缓解开发商的资金压力，提高开发商的议价能力。因此无论从开发商角度还是从住房消费需求角度银行信贷都对房价产生正相关的关系。同时本文理论分析认为土地供应不足也是推动房价上涨的一个重要因素。对30个省份进行的面板数据模型分析也认为银行信贷过度、土地供应不足是造成大部分省份房价上涨的重要因素。最后本文认为当前房价居高不下，政府需要根据区域的发展调整土地供应政策，银行应对信贷资金实行有效控制，防止信贷资金过多的投向房地产企业，造成房价的过快上涨。
[Abstract]:In -20s, China began to implement the land use system and housing system reform, with the deepening of the housing system reform and the advancement of the urbanization process. The real estate industry has achieved rapid development. The real estate industry has played an important role in driving the development of related industries, increasing employment and improving the housing consumption structure. In 2003, China listed the real estate industry as the pillar industry of economic development, but with the rapid development of the real estate industry, it also brought about the continuous rise of house prices. The rapid rise of house prices has caused great pressure on the rigid housing demand, which is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate industry in the long run. The government has also introduced a series of measures to control the flow of credit to the real estate industry, crack down on land hoarding by developers, and reform the land transfer mode. But house prices are still high. Based on this background, this paper studies the impact of bank credit and land supply constraints on housing prices from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development of China's real estate market. Since 2003, house prices have increased greatly, and the scale of real estate investment has been on the rise. However, the proportion of real estate investment in fixed assets investment is lower than that in previous years. The observation of the real estate credit market shows that the bank credit funds flow to the real estate enterprises. The analysis of land market shows that the government can not effectively regulate the demand of land supply according to the restriction of land supply. This with the rapid development of real estate needs a large number of land supply reality. Secondly, this paper first from the theoretical level of bank credit. Theoretical analysis shows that bank credit investment in real estate will stimulate housing demand, on the other hand, it will ease the financial pressure of developers. Therefore, whether from the perspective of developers or from the point of view of housing consumer demand, bank credit has a positive correlation on housing prices. At the same time, the theoretical analysis of this paper believes that the lack of land supply is also to promote housing. The panel data model analysis of 30 provinces also shows that bank credit is excessive. The shortage of land supply is an important factor for the rise of housing prices in most provinces. Finally, this paper argues that the current high housing prices, the government needs to adjust the land supply policy according to the development of the region. Banks should implement effective control of credit funds to prevent excessive investment in real estate enterprises, resulting in a rapid rise in house prices.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.45;F299.23

【引证文献】