城市产业结构专业化和多样化对经济稳定增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 22:24

本文关键词： 专业化多样化相关多样化无关多样化经济增长经济稳定就业稳定　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，世界经济的不确定性突出，我国经济面临的风险日益增多，高增长率遇到了巨大挑战。面对严峻的国内外经济形势，我国政府将“稳增长、转方式、调结构”作为经济工作的紧迫任务。经济的长期稳定增长需要以健康完善的经济结构为基础。本文以产业专业化和多样化影响城市经济发展的理论机制为基础，利用2002-2011年全国261个地级及以上城市数据，构建相对专业化指数和熵指数作为两种产业结构的衡量指标，并将后者分为相关多样化和无关多样化两部分。利用中国工业企业数据库数据测算得出产业结构多样化水平的熵指标，分别从经济增长、经济波动及就业波动三个方面检验两种产业结构的影响，并考察产业多样化与城市规模的协同效应，检验经济增长与经济波动的因果关系。为进一步分析比较不同地区和不同规模城市专业化、多样化的产业结构对经济增长和稳定性影响的差异，本文分东、中、西三个地区及大城市和中小城市分别进行计量检验，得出以下结论：第一，在2002-2011年期间我国多数城市没有从多样化的城市经济中获得增长的动力，但多样化与城市规模具有对经济增长的协同促进作用；第二，，多样化经济促进了大城市的经济增长，且有利于增强不同规模城市经济增长的稳定性。中小城市依靠专业化经济拉动了经济增长，专业化的产业结构稳定了就业；第三，东部地区多样化的产业结构不仅促进了经济增长，而且对经济增长过程及就业的稳定性有显著贡献。中部地区则相反，专业化的产业结构更有利于经济稳定增长。对西部城市，专业化利于经济增长，但会带来一定的经济波动。第四，城市经济的波动和增长相互影响。其中，经济波动和就业波动明显不利于经济增长，经济增长可以减轻经济波动，却不利于就业稳定。根据以上研究结果，结合我国现实发展状况，本文最后提出了若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the uncertainty of the world economy is prominent, the risk of our country's economy is increasing day by day, the high growth rate has met the huge challenge. Facing the severe domestic and foreign economic situation, our country government will "steady growth, change the way." Adjusting structure "is an urgent task of economic work. The long-term stable growth of economy needs to be based on a healthy and perfect economic structure. This paper is based on the theoretical mechanism that industrial specialization and diversification affect the development of urban economy." Based on the data of 261 prefectural cities and above from 2002 to 2011, the relative specialization index and entropy index are constructed as the measurement indexes of the two kinds of industrial structure. The latter is divided into two parts: related diversification and unrelated diversification. The entropy index of the diversification level of industrial structure is calculated by using the database data of Chinese industrial enterprises, respectively, from the economic growth. Economic fluctuation and employment fluctuation examine the impact of the two types of industrial structure, and examine the synergy between industrial diversification and urban scale. To test the causality between economic growth and economic fluctuations. In order to further analyze and compare the differences between different regions and cities with different size of specialization and diversification of industrial structure on economic growth and stability, this paper is divided into east and middle. The three western regions, large cities and small and medium-sized cities were tested separately, and the following conclusions were drawn: First, in 2002-2011, most cities in China did not obtain the power of growth from the diversified urban economy, but diversification and urban scale have a synergistic role in promoting economic growth; Second, the diversified economy promotes the economic growth of large cities and helps to enhance the stability of economic growth of cities of different sizes. Small and medium-sized cities rely on specialized economy to stimulate economic growth. The specialized industrial structure stabilizes employment; Third, the diversified industrial structure in the eastern region not only promotes economic growth, but also contributes significantly to the process of economic growth and the stability of employment. Specialization of industrial structure is more conducive to stable economic growth. For western cities, specialization is conducive to economic growth, but will bring certain economic fluctuations. 4th, urban economic fluctuations and growth interaction. Economic fluctuations and employment fluctuations are obviously not conducive to economic growth, economic growth can reduce economic fluctuations, but not conducive to employment stability. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.2;F224;F124.1

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