工程地震风险与保险模型

发布时间：2018-01-24 10:18

本文关键词： 地震风险地震保险保险定价保险费率分类费率　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在人类社会的发展中，地震灾害对社会经济和安定产生巨大的影响，随着城市化进程的加快和中国经济的快速发展，因地震造成的经济损失有不断增大的趋势。作为一种分摊地震风险和补偿地震损失的有效手段，，地震保险得到了各国的重视，并得以迅速发展。在地震保险产品的设计中，费率厘定是其中的核心技术，也是世界性的难题。世界上很多地震多发国家已经建立并实施了相应的地震保险制度，我国在地震保险方面的研究却刚起步，尚未形成较为完整的地震保险费率厘定体系。因此，结合工程地震风险评价，适度考虑保险人经营风险，建立科学合理的地震保险费率厘定模型是十分重要和必要的。本文运用非寿险分类费率厘定方法，结合地震危险性分析、结构易损性分析、保险区规模和公司财务风险，提出了地震保险分类费率厘定模型。首先，对我国的地震风险和地震风险管理作了简要分析，以日本、美国加州和土耳其三地为例，详细分析了国际地震保险的现状，在结合国内外地震保险研究的基础上，归纳了单体建筑地震保险定价的一般过程。然后，在分析费率构成及影响因素的基础上，将模型分为地震危险性、结构易损性、保险规模和财务四个模块，通过保险区划实现费率分区，通过易损性评估实现费率分级。系统分析了场地条件、用途因子、保险密度、次生灾害风险、建筑设防标准、建筑年代等对上述四个模块的影响规律，提出了一个全新的地震保险费率模型，并就绝对免赔额、理赔基准和赔付比例等保险措施进行了深入的分析。其次，在地震保险分类费率模型的基础上，结合GIS技术和云计算，对地震保险定价系统的构建思路作了探讨，提出了合理的地震保险定价系统构架。最后，以福州市为算例，对地震保险分类费率模型进行运用，并进行了敏感性分析，根据模拟结果对我国地震保险事业的可持续发展提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the development of human society, earthquake disaster has a great impact on social economy and stability, along with the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid development of Chinese economy. The economic loss caused by earthquake is increasing. As an effective means to share the risk of earthquake and compensate for the loss of earthquake, earthquake insurance has been paid attention to by many countries. In the design of seismic insurance products, rate determination is the core technology. Earthquake insurance system has been established and implemented in many earthquake-prone countries in the world, but the research on earthquake insurance in China has just started. There is not yet a complete system for determining the rate of earthquake insurance. Therefore, combined with the evaluation of engineering earthquake risk, appropriate consideration is given to the operating risk of the insurer. It is very important and necessary to establish a scientific and reasonable model for determining the rate of earthquake insurance. In this paper, the method of determining non-life insurance classification rate is used, combined with seismic risk analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, size of insurance area and financial risk of company, a model for determining classification rate of earthquake insurance is put forward. This paper briefly analyzes the earthquake risk and earthquake risk management in China. Taking Japan, California and Turkey as examples, the present situation of international earthquake insurance is analyzed in detail. Based on the research of seismic insurance at home and abroad, the general process of pricing of seismic insurance for single building is summarized. Then, the model is divided into seismic risk on the basis of analyzing the rate composition and influencing factors. Structure vulnerability, insurance scale and finance four modules, through insurance zoning to achieve rate zoning, through vulnerability assessment to achieve rate classification. System analysis of site conditions, use factors, insurance density. Based on the influence of the risk of secondary disaster, the standard of building fortification and the age of building on the above four modules, a new model of earthquake insurance rate is put forward, and the absolute deductible amount is put forward. The insurance measures such as claim benchmark and indemnity ratio are deeply analyzed. Secondly, based on the classification rate model of earthquake insurance, combined with GIS technology and cloud computing. This paper discusses the construction idea of earthquake insurance pricing system, and puts forward a reasonable frame of earthquake insurance pricing system. Finally, taking Fuzhou as an example, the classification rate model of earthquake insurance is applied. The sensitivity analysis is carried out and the relevant policy recommendations for the sustainable development of earthquake insurance industry in China are put forward according to the simulation results.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.64;F224

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