B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目投资效益及风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 19:34

本文关键词： 棚户区改造建设房地产风险研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为人类生活的栖息地,城市是现代文明的结晶,也是人类乃以生存和寄托的梦想之所。城市的快速发展,城镇化进程的加快,导致出现越来越多的“城中村”“棚户区”,同时也催生了房地产市场经济泡沫。房地产市场的快速扩张,使得城市建设发展进一步失衡,并且导致土地资源稀缺。为了解决房地产市场过快发展而导致的一系列问题,诸如“城中村”“棚户区”的数量增加,土地资源流失严重,大量开垦耕地作为建设用地等,政府已经陆续出台了许多政策法规抑制问题的进一步发展。与此同时,之前的棚户区改造建设模式的弊端越来越明显,导致棚户区改造建设陷入瓶颈。伴随着政府发展方向性的改变,新的一轮建设规划以及合作方式受到了众多企业的关注。本文基于这个背景,针对W公司拟投资B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的案例分析,研究了棚户区改造建设项目以政府为主导开发商参与的合作方案的特点、成本、收益及其相应的风险控制。本文的主要研究内容如下：首先,本文的绪论部分主要阐述了B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目出现的背景,以及本文的研究意义、研究内容。通过W公司拟投资B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目这一案例,分别介绍了项目建设背景、企业投资方背景及B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的合作方式。其次,本文介绍了全国棚户区改造建设项目的现状及其难点,同时也对现在棚户区改造建设项目模式进行了分析,并提出了本文所探索的新思路——以政府为主导,开发商参与的棚户区改造建设模式,分析了该模式的优缺点。再次,本文概括介绍B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的基本情况,如当地的需求,并且利用SWOT分析法对该项目做出详尽的分析得出一个合理的综合评价,提出在新模式的合作方式下更为合理的建设方案、运营情况。紧跟着,本文第四部分通过ISM分析方法针对W公司投资B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的一系列风险作出分析研究,并且根据B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目特有的合作方案提出相关风险控制措施。最后,本文通过B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的相关财务数据分析,预测了该项目现金流量情况,并使用敏感性分析做了测算,得出结论：项目投资额的变动对两种净利润指标的影响程度更大。同时通过经济指标的预测结果可以得出该项目的内部收益率远远高出本项目的基准收益率,因此得出结论：W公司拟投资B区X路段棚户区改造建设项目的经济效益是非常具有可观的。本文的研究方法是以w公司拟投资B区x路段棚户区改造建设项目的案例分析为切入点,研究分析棚户区改造建设项目的新合作模式。本文旨在解决现今棚户区改造建设陷入瓶颈的主要问题,同时在一定程度上缓解土地资源不足而导致乱圈地的情况。本文通过相关案例分析得出结论：新型合作模式——以政府为主导,开发商参与的棚户区改造建设模式是现今我国城市一体化发展过程中较佳途径。
[Abstract]:As a human life habitat, the city is the crystallization of modern civilization, is the human survival and sustenance in the dream. The rapid development of the city, speeding up the urbanization process, leading to an increasing number of "Villages" and "shantytowns", but also economic bubbles in real estate market. The rapid expansion of the real estate market the city construction and development, further imbalance and lead to the scarcity of land resources. A series of problems in order to solve the excessive development of the real estate market caused, such as "Villages" and "shantytowns" increase in the number of land resources, the serious loss of a large number of reclaimed land is used as construction land, the government has gradually introduced a further development many policies and regulations to suppress the problem. At the same time, before the renovation of shanty towns construction mode is more and more obvious disadvantages, resulting in shantytowns construction into the bottle neck with. Change the government development direction of the new round of planning and cooperation by many enterprises. This paper based on this background, according to the case analysis of W company intends to project shantytowns section X investment B, the cost of shantytowns construction projects by the government for the characteristics of leading developers cooperation scheme in the return, and the corresponding risk control. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the introduction part mainly elaborates the X road B District shantytowns construction project background and significance, the research content of this paper. Through the case of X W company intends to invest B District shantytowns road the construction project, introduces the project background, section X and B enterprise investment background reconstruction project shantytowns cooperation. Secondly, this paper introduces the national shantytowns construction The status quo and difficulties of the project, but also on the transformation of shanty towns construction project now mode are analyzed, and a new idea is put forward in this paper to explore, guided by the government, the construction of shantytowns mode developers involved in the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of this mode. Thirdly, this paper introduces the basic situation of X road B District shantytowns in the project, such as local needs, and make a detailed analysis of the project that a reasonable comprehensive evaluation using the SWOT analysis method, put forward a new model in the way of cooperation is more construction plan, reasonable operation. Followed by the fourth part of this paper make a research through a series of risk analysis ISM methods according to the W investment company B X road shantytowns construction projects, and according to the B X road reconstruction project shantytowns special cooperation plan put forward relevant risk control measures. Finally, through the relevant financial data of B area X road shantytowns construction project analysis, forecast the project cash flow, and the use of sensitivity analysis to do a calculation, draw the conclusion: the influence of the project investment changes on two net profit index is larger. At the same time through the forecast of economic indicators results the project's internal rate of return is much higher than the benchmark interest rate of project, thus draw the conclusion: the W X section of B investment company intends to district shantytowns construction project economic benefit is very considerable. This research is based on case analysis of W company intends to project shantytowns section x investment B area as a starting point, analysis of shantytowns construction projects of the new cooperation mode. This paper aims to solve the shantytowns construction problems into a bottleneck, and to some extent alleviate The lack of land resources leads to confusion. Based on relevant cases, the paper concludes that the new cooperative mode -- the government oriented development of shantytowns is a good way for the development of urban integration in China.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

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