碳税政策对北京经济—环境—能源系统的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 11:59

本文关键词： 碳排放碳税 CGE模型经济影响　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国目前已经是世界上能源消费量和碳排放量最大的国家之一,面临着巨大的减排压力：发展现代化、工业化、城市化建设对能源的需求量不断增加；“富煤、少气、缺油”的资源条件；煤炭在能源消费结构中占据绝对的主导地位；产业结构以高耗能的第二产业为主；发展低碳经济又受到技术水平的制约。在此背景下,发展“低污染、低排放、低能耗”的低碳经济成为我国“十二五规划”重要目标。碳税作为宏观调控政策因为能够有效地节能减排而受到国内外广泛关注。有关碳税政策的研究有很多,其中CGE模型是最主流的政策分析工具。国内学者也通过该模型对我国的能源与环境做了大量的研究,但研究区域的模型很少。因此,本文建立了一个研究北京能源消费与碳排放的静态可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE),将北京市经济-环境系统分为生产、贸易、收入和支出、社会福利、碳排放与碳税、均衡等6个模块,建立了一个静态的CGE模型,并进行了实证研究,模拟分析了碳税对北京地区的能源消费、碳排放量以及经济发展的影响。通过模拟结果可以得到以下结论：随着二氧化碳减排量的逐渐增加,对三种化石能源征收的的从价碳税税率也逐渐提高,其中税率最高的是煤炭,其次是石油,天然气与燃气的从价税税率最低；煤炭、石油、天然气与燃气的需求量都随着减排量的增加而下降,其中,煤炭、石油的下降比例比较大,天然气与燃气其次,清洁电力需求量明显提高；绝大多数部门产出都有不同程度的下降,尤其高耗能部门产出下降程度明显。研究结果表明,北京节能减排的关键在于减少煤炭的消耗,碳税对减少北京市的化石能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量能够起到积极的作用,有必要逐渐在北京实施。在未来的低碳经济发展过程中,调整单一的、以煤炭为主的能源结构、发展煤炭能源的清洁利用尤为重要。
[Abstract]:At present, China is one of the largest energy consumption and carbon emission countries in the world, and it is faced with enormous pressure of emission reduction: developing modernization, industrialization, urbanization and increasing demand for energy; "rich coal, less gas, lack of oil" resource conditions; Coal occupies an absolute dominant position in the structure of energy consumption; The industrial structure is mainly secondary industry with high energy consumption; Under this background, the development of low carbon economy with "low pollution, low emission and low energy consumption" has become an important goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan of our country. Carbon tax, as a macro-control policy, has attracted wide attention at home and abroad because it can effectively save energy and reduce emissions. There are a lot of research on carbon tax policy. CGE model is the most mainstream tool for policy analysis. Domestic scholars have also done a lot of research on energy and environment in China through this model, but there are few regional models. In this paper, a static computable general equilibrium model for the study of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing is established. The economic-environmental system of Beijing is divided into six modules: production, trade, income and expenditure, social welfare, carbon emissions and carbon tax, equilibrium. A static CGE model is established and an empirical study is carried out. The effects of carbon tax on energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic development in Beijing are simulated and analyzed. Through the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: with the increase of carbon dioxide emission reduction. The ad valorem carbon tax rate on the three kinds of fossil energy is also gradually increasing, among which coal is the highest, followed by oil, natural gas and gas ad valorem tax rate is the lowest; The demand for coal, oil, natural gas and gas all decreased with the increase of emission reduction. Most of the sector output has decreased in varying degrees, especially in the energy-intensive sector. The results show that the key to energy conservation and emission reduction in Beijing is to reduce coal consumption. Carbon tax can play a positive role in reducing the consumption of fossil energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing, it is necessary to gradually implement in Beijing. Coal-based energy structure, the development of clean use of coal energy is particularly important.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.42;F127;F205

【参考文献】