宏观调控政策下成都市房地产企业投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-04 08:38

本文关键词： 房地产投资风险因子分析法　出处：《西华大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的快速发展，房地产行业作为国民经济支柱产业也在高速发展中，许多企业纷纷挤入房地产投资的行列。在房地产迅猛发展的背后，同时出现了房价上涨过快、住房结构不合理、空置率高等问题，部分城市已出现房地产泡沫。面对如此形式，国家不断出台了一系列针对房地产市场宏观调控的政策。房地产作为一种特殊的商品，其投资金额大，资金回收期长，，这就使得房地产企业在投资过程中必然承受巨大的风险。在紧缩的宏观调控政策下，房地产企业的投资风险必然加大。准确分析房地产市场发展状况，了解政策调控动向，对房地产投资风险进行正确的分析评价，能为房地产投资企业提供参考和借鉴，使得房地产企业对投资进行正确决策，降低房地产投资风险。本文针对目前房地产市场发展状况，提出了本文的研究内容，制定了一套技术路线，然后对房地产投资风险国内外相关研究进行了综述，提出目前研究状况的不合理，期待寻找一种合理的分析方法。其次，本文对房地产投资风险中相关概念进行了阐述，对房地产投资风险进行了分类，将其分为系统风险和非系统风险。并对目前房地产投资风险主要评价方法进行了描述，主要包括专家打分法、敏感性分析法、蒙特卡洛法、模糊综合评价法。本文重点对房地产综合调控政策、金融政策、税收政策、土地政策进行了总结，分析了调控政策对房地产市场的影响，提出一套房地产投资风险评价指标。并选取成都市相关数据，采用因子分析法对成都市的房地产投资风险进行实证研究，分析出成都市房地产主要投资风险及影响因素。最后，根据分析得出的结论，为房地产投资企业降低投资风险提出相关建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy is in rapid development, many enterprises have to squeeze into the ranks of real estate investment. Behind the rapid development of real estate, at the same time, housing prices rose too fast, the housing structure is unreasonable, the vacancy rate high, has been part of the city real estate bubble. In the face of such a form, the state has introduced a series of macro-control on the real estate market policy. The real estate as a special commodity, the large amount of investment, long payback period, which makes the real estate enterprises in the investment process will bear great risks. In the tightening macro-control policies, the real estate enterprise investment risk will increase. Accurate analysis of the development of the real estate market, understand the policy trends, analysis and evaluation of the right of real estate investment risk for real estate The investment enterprises provide reference and reference to make the real estate enterprises make the correct decision on investment and reduce the risk of real estate investment.
Aiming at the current development of the real estate market, this paper puts forward the research contents of this paper, and develops a set of technology routes. Then, it summarizes the related research on real estate investment risk at home and abroad, and points out that the current research situation is unreasonable, and expects to find a reasonable analysis method.
Secondly, this paper elaborates the related concept of real estate investment risk, the real estate investment risk classification will be divided into system risk and non system risk. The main method of evaluating real estate investment risk are described, including the expert scoring method, sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo method, fuzzy comprehensive the evaluation method.
This paper focuses on the real estate regulation policy, financial policy, tax policy, land policy is summarized, analyzed the impact of regulatory policy on the real estate market, a real estate investment risk evaluation index. And select the data of Chengdu, using the factor analysis method of real estate investment risk in Chengdu city for empirical research. Analysis of the main factors of Chengdu City real estate investment risk and impact.
Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, some suggestions are put forward for the real estate investment enterprises to reduce the investment risk.

【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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