房地产价格与银行信贷及银行稳定的动态关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 00:38

本文关键词： 房价波动银行信贷银行稳定多元GRACH模型　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展，房地产业逐渐成为居民消费的主导产业，对国民经济增长、就业扩大及居民消费水平提高具有显著的拉动效应。房地产业的发展离不开金融的支持，金融稳定也离不开以房地产业为代表的产业健康发展。它们是如何相互影响的，值得研究。我国房地产业的发展与金融行业关系十分密切，房地产业的发展是否稳定，将直接关系到金融体系的稳定和国民经济的繁荣发展。如果房地产业的风险形成，房地产市场泡沫破灭，将会引发全国性地金融风险，，甚至危害到国家金融体系的稳定，进而影响到整个国民经济的发展。本文旨在研究房地产价格和银行信贷及银行稳定的相互影响机制。在引言中介绍了研究的背景、意义和国内外的研究现状，在此基础上，本文从理论和实证两方面对房地产价格、银行信贷和银行稳定的关系进行了系统地论述和论证。在理论方面，本文首先对我国房地产市场、银行信贷和银行稳定进行概述；然后全面阐述房价波动、银行信贷和银行稳定之间的相互影响机制。在实证方面，本文依据时间序列数据对房价波动、银行信贷和银行稳定三者之间的关系进行实证分析，运用多元GARCH模型刻画银行信贷和房地产价格随时间的波动情况，同时也分析了银行稳定的变动情况。基于以上研究，本文得出结论：我国房地产价格上涨和银行信贷扩张是双向地相互驱动造成的；我国房价波动、银行信贷波动及两者的联合波动均具有很强的GARCH效应，即房价波动、银行信贷波动的冲击具有长期性，房价和贷款一旦发生波动，这种波动不会在短期内得到抑制；引起我国银行不稳定的因素主要为房价波动、银行信贷波动以及两者相互驱动下的联合波动；而银行反馈机制所引起的信贷紧缩和资本紧缩效果不明显。经过理论分析和实证验证之后，文章在最后针对我国房地产市场和银行房地产信贷提出建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the real estate industry has gradually become the leading industry of residents' consumption, which is increasing the national economy. The expansion of employment and the improvement of residents' consumption level have significant pull effect. The development of real estate industry can not be separated from the support of finance. Financial stability is also inseparable from the healthy development of real estate industry. The development of China's real estate industry is closely related to the financial industry. Whether the development of the real estate industry is stable or not will be directly related to the stability of the financial system and the prosperity of the national economy. The bursting of the real estate market bubble will lead to national financial risks, even endanger the stability of the national financial system, and then affect the development of the whole national economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the mutual influence mechanism of real estate price, bank credit and bank stability. In the introduction, it introduces the background, significance and current situation of the research at home and abroad. This paper systematically discusses and demonstrates the relationship between real estate price, bank credit and bank stability from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, this paper first discusses the real estate market in China. Bank credit and bank stability are outlined; Then the paper comprehensively expounds the interaction mechanism between house price fluctuation, bank credit and bank stability. In the empirical aspect, this paper based on the time series data to the price fluctuation. The relationship between bank credit and bank stability is analyzed empirically, and the multivariate GARCH model is used to describe the fluctuation of bank credit and real estate prices over time. Based on the above research, this paper draws a conclusion: the rise of real estate price and the expansion of bank credit are driven by each other in both directions; The fluctuation of house price, the fluctuation of bank credit and the joint fluctuation of both have very strong GARCH effect, that is, the fluctuation of house price, the impact of fluctuation of bank credit is long-term, and once the fluctuation of house price and loan occurs, the fluctuation of house price and loan occurs. Such fluctuations will not be suppressed in the short term; The main factors that cause the bank instability in China are the fluctuation of house price, the fluctuation of bank credit and the joint fluctuation driven by each other. But the bank feedback mechanism causes the credit contraction and the capital contraction effect is not obvious. After theoretical analysis and empirical verification, the paper puts forward some suggestions on real estate market and bank real estate credit.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

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