千岛湖旅游地城镇化路径演化的动力机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 15:57

本文关键词： 旅游城镇化动力系统路径演化熵值千岛湖　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,尤其“十八大”以来,新型城镇化建设以及如何实现新型城镇化成为炙手可热的研究问题之一,而旅游城镇化作为新型城镇化建设的重要途径更是备受关注。旅游城镇化是新型城镇化发展不可或缺的方式之一,主要依托于消费聚集、产业联合、生态提升、配套优化等要素,最大程度地获得了中国巨大的消费“人口红利”。因此,研究旅游城镇化路径演化的动力机制具有非常重要的现实意义。本文以旅游地生命周期理论与耗散结构理论为基础,分析了千岛湖旅游地城镇化的演化阶段。本文根据湖泊自然地理特征、脆弱的生态环境、旅游资源禀赋,结合已有的研究文献,构建千岛湖旅游地城镇化发展现状评价体系。运用熵值法从人口、经济、资源环境、社会四大子系统对千岛湖旅游地城镇化发展的25项动力因子作了综合评价。本文以2005-2013年的历史数据为基础,采用系统动力学的研究方法,构建了千岛湖旅游城镇化的系统模型,通过仿真模拟和灵敏度分析的结果表明：(1)千岛湖旅游地城镇化系统中,四大子系统相互影响、相互作用,其中经济子系统水平最高,其推动作用也最强,而人口子系统水平最低,说明人口结构亟待改进；(2)在旅游业飞速发展的前提下,预测到2020年,四大子系统的发展水平都将呈上涨态势；(3)动力因子中,第三产业从业人口、人均GDP及每千人民用汽车拥有量对城镇化的推动作用最为显著。最后,本文根据上述结论,提出千岛湖旅游地城镇化建设的政策建议：(1)优化人口子系统,解决人口城镇化问题；(2)增强经济子系统,保证产业经济持续增长；(3)协调资源环境子系统,促进城镇可持续增长；(4)保障社会子系统,提升社会服务能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, especially since the "18", the construction of new urbanization and how to achieve new type of urbanization has become one of the hottest research issues. Tourism urbanization, as an important approach to the construction of new urbanization, has attracted much attention. Tourism urbanization is one of the indispensable ways for the development of new urbanization, which mainly depends on the accumulation of consumption, industrial association and ecological upgrading. The matching optimization and other factors have maximized the "demographic dividend" of China's huge consumption. It is of great practical significance to study the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of tourism urbanization path. This paper is based on the theory of tourism destination life cycle and the theory of dissipative structure. This paper analyzes the evolution stage of the urbanization of Qiandao Lake tourist destination. According to the natural geographical characteristics of the lake, the fragile ecological environment, the natural endowment of tourism resources, and combined with the existing research documents, To construct the evaluation system of the present situation of urbanization in Qiandao Lake tourist destination, and to use the entropy method to analyze the population, economy, resources and environment, Based on the historical data from 2005 to 2013, the paper constructs a systematic model of tourism urbanization in Qiandao Lake based on the historical data from 2005 to 2013, using the research method of system dynamics, the four subsystems of society have made a comprehensive evaluation on the 25 dynamic factors of the urbanization development of the tourist destination in Qiandao Lake, which is based on the historical data from 2005 to 2013. The results of simulation and sensitivity analysis show that in the urbanization system of Thousand Island Lake, the four subsystems interact with each other. Among them, the economic subsystem has the highest level and its promoting effect is also the strongest. The population subsystem level is the lowest, indicating that the population structure needs to be improved urgently. On the premise of the rapid development of tourism, it is predicted that by 2020, the development level of the four major subsystems will be on the rise. The per capita GDP and the number of civilian cars per thousand people play the most important role in promoting urbanization. Finally, according to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the policy suggestion of urbanization construction in Thousand Island Lake: 1) to optimize the population subsystem. To solve the problem of population urbanization, to strengthen the economic subsystem, to ensure the sustained growth of industrial economy and to coordinate the resource and environment subsystem, to promote the sustainable growth of cities and towns, to ensure the social subsystem and to enhance the social service capacity.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F592.7

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