中国房地产上市企业财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 08:32

本文关键词： 房地产行业财务危机预警非财务指标二元Logistic回归　出处：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在我国住房体制改革不断深化的过程中,与人类物质生活息息相关的房地产行业,已逐步化身为国民经济中的支柱产业。然而,近年来政府为抑制急剧膨胀的房价泡沫所陆续实施的宏观调控及日益复杂的市场环境,使得房地产企业之间的竞争愈发激烈。由于我国房地产行业存在起步晚、基础差、规模小、市场尚未实现规范化等特点,企业的资产负债率普遍超过其他行业的平均水平,这给企业的经营效率、盈利能力,尤其资金链等方面均带来了巨大的财务风险隐患。所以,对于研究房地产行业中典型代表——房地产A股上市企业的财务危机预警模型存在巨大的应用价值。本文在大量参阅国内外财务危机预警相关研究的基础上,运用财务危机预警的相关理论,分析了房地产业的特点以及财务危机的内涵和成因,选取了包含财务和非财务类“6+1”个维度的32个预警指标。然后,根据行业分类标准等筛选了沪深A股2008-2012年115家房地产上市企业作为研究样本,通过显著性分析,甄选出了各期预警模型中具有显著性差异的指标,并运用二元Logistic分析建立了T-3-T-1年中长期的财务危机预警模型。最后,对模型预警效果进行检验,得出了对比分析结论,并提出关于改进预警模型研究相关的建议。研究结果表明,财务指标能在很大程度上反映房地产上市企业的财务状况,其中,盈利能力和盈利质量维度的财务指标稳定性最强。引入非财务指标之后,模型预警准确率得到了进一步提高。对于中长期的预警模型,T-1年的预测准确度要优于T-2和T-3年。
[Abstract]:In the process of deepening the reform of housing system in China, the real estate industry, which is closely related to the material life of human beings, has gradually become the pillar industry in the national economy. In recent years, the macro-control and increasingly complex market environment implemented by the government to curb the rapidly expanding housing bubble have made the competition between the real estate enterprises more intense. Because of the late start of the real estate industry in our country, the foundation of the real estate industry is poor. The scale is small, the market has not yet been standardized and so on. The assets and liabilities ratio of the enterprise is generally higher than the average level of other industries, which gives the enterprise operating efficiency and profitability. In particular, the chain of funds and other aspects have brought huge financial risks. There is great application value in studying the financial crisis early warning model of real estate A-share listed enterprises, which is a typical representative of real estate industry. Based on the theory of financial crisis early warning, this paper analyzes the characteristics of real estate industry, the connotation and cause of financial crisis, and selects 32 early warning indexes including financial and non-financial "61" dimensions. According to the industry classification standard, 115 real estate listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2008 to 2012 were selected as the research samples. Finally, the paper tests the early-warning effect of the model, draws the conclusion of comparative analysis, and puts forward some suggestions on improving the early-warning model. Financial indicators can reflect the financial situation of listed real estate enterprises to a large extent, among which, the stability of financial indicators in the dimensions of profitability and profit quality is the strongest. The accuracy of early warning is further improved, and the prediction accuracy of T-1 year is better than that of T-2 and T-3 years.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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