大连市低碳城市发展水平评价及路径研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 07:48

  本文关键词： 低碳城市 碳排放 脱钩理论 路径 大连市　出处：《辽宁师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前，全球气候变暖已引起了国际社会的普遍关注。城市是温室气体的主要排放源。据统计,全球大城市的能源消耗量以及温室气体排放量均超过了全球总量的70%。在全球环境危机和中国能源紧张的背景下，城市发展的必然选择即建设低碳城市。 本文在国内外低碳城市相关研究现状与低碳城市建设的基本理论的基础上,首先分析了2000-2012年大连市社会经济发展、能源消耗与科教现状,然后阐述了大连市碳排放量的来源，接着运用Kaya模型计算出了城市碳排放量，进而采用脱钩理论模型以及主要指标法分别对大连市低碳城市发展水平进行评价，最后提出了大连市建设低碳城市的路径。 本文的主要研究结论： （1）运用Kaya碳排放计量模型,计算出2000-2012年大连市碳排放量与GDP总量、工业化率、城市化率三项指标存在密切相关性,总体上呈现出正相关性，尤其是碳排放量与GDP总量之间几乎表现为同步增长趋势。 （2）利用碳排放贡献因子模型，得出人均GDP、建筑面积、年电量消耗、年汽车数量等因素对大连市碳排放量有举足轻重的作用。 （3）运用脱钩理论模型对大连市低碳城市发展水平进行评价，得出2004-2012年大连市低碳水平指数属于O.5≤LLCI＜1，意味着大连市经济发展未摆脱碳基能源消耗的束缚，所以大连市是相对高碳城市。 （4）基于主要指标法把大连市低碳城市发展水平与北京、上海、天津、武汉四个城市进行对比，结果表明:大连市处于较低的低碳城市发展水平。 （5）根据大连实际情况，笔者分为三个层面提出了大连市建设低碳城市的路径，，分别从加快低碳制度建设与政策制定的宏观层面，优化能源结构、调整产业结构、扩大自然碳汇等城市低碳统筹的中观层面以及倡导家庭低碳生活与引导企业低碳生产共进的微观层面进行探讨研究。
[Abstract]:At present, global warming has aroused widespread concern in the international community. Cities are the main sources of greenhouse gases. According to statistics, The energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the world's largest cities exceed 70% of the global total. Under the background of the global environmental crisis and China's energy shortage, the inevitable choice for urban development is to build low-carbon cities. Based on the research status quo of low-carbon cities at home and abroad and the basic theory of low-carbon city construction, this paper first analyzes the social and economic development, energy consumption and current situation of science and education in Dalian from 2000 to 2012, and then expounds the sources of carbon emissions in Dalian. Then the Kaya model is used to calculate the urban carbon emissions, and then the decoupling theory model and the main index method are used to evaluate the development level of low-carbon cities in Dalian. Finally, the path of constructing low-carbon cities in Dalian is put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1) using the Kaya carbon emission measurement model, it is found that there is a close correlation between carbon emissions and total GDP, industrialization rate and urbanization rate in Dalian from 2000 to 2012, and there is a positive correlation in general. In particular, carbon emissions and the total amount of GDP almost show a synchronous growth trend. 2) by using the contribution factor model of carbon emissions, it is concluded that the factors such as per capita GDP, building area, annual electricity consumption and the number of cars per year play an important role in the carbon emissions of Dalian. 3) using the decoupling theory model to evaluate the development level of low-carbon cities in Dalian, it is concluded that the index of low-carbon level in Dalian from 2004 to 2012 belongs to O.5 鈮

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