中国贸易结构的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 02:46

本文关键词： 贸易结构就业效应投入产出法　出处：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：就业是关系国计民生的重要问题。“十八大”明确提出要“实施就业优先战略和更加积极的就业政策”，表明了党和政府对就业问题的高度重视。宏观经济学认为，非充分就业条件下，总需求增加产出增加，就业增加。在封闭经济系统中，总需求主要依靠国内需求；而在开放经济系统中，国外需求增加，总需求也增加。自2001年加入世界贸易组织，我国贸易总额持续增长，对外贸易依存度逐步提高，对GDP增长的贡献率也持续增长。在此背景下研究贸易对就业的作用既紧跟社会热点，又具有重要的理论、实践意义。借鉴投资乘数理论，本文认为一国贸易不仅通过增加需求直接带动该行业就业，还通过贸易行业与其他行业的投入产出关系间接带动相关行业就业。但以往研究大多忽略了这一现实。为弥补以往研究不足，本文在分析我国贸易结构、就业结构现状的基础上，采用1995-2011年贸易、产出、就业等数据，运用投入产出分析方法，测算出我国2002-2011年各产业贸易就业效应、1995-2011年工业贸易就业效应，并在此基础上分析了贸易总额就业效应、四大产业贸易就业效应、工业贸易就业效应。具体来说，本文的研究分为七章，第一章绪论，第二章相关文献综述及评析，第三、四章研究我国贸易结构、就业结构现状，第五章研究我国贸易就业效应，第六章继续探讨工业贸易就业效应，第七章总结本文主要结论，并提出针对性的对策建议。本文得出以下主要结论：第一，，总的来说，我国贸易就业效应为正。2002-2011年累计净就业效应20.67亿人。第二，按四大产业分贸易就业效应时，工业是我国贸易就业效应主导，属于较高直接就业效应—高贸易就业效应产业。服务业贸易就业效应仅次于工业，属于较高直接就业效应—较高贸易就业效应产业。农业贸易就业效应为第三大贸易就业效应产业，属于高直接就业效应—较高贸易就业效应产业。建筑业贸易就业效应最弱，属于低直接就业效应—低贸易就业效应产业。第三，按要素密集度细分工业贸易就业效应时，劳动密集型行业是工业贸易就业效应的主导，属于较高直接就业效应—高贸易就业效应行业。资本（技术）密集型行业实现负效应向正效应的转变，正效应呈逐渐增强。但两者贸易就业效应的调整呈现不同规律。前者波动较小，调整快，扮演着工业贸易就业效应稳定器的作用。后者受生产规模影响，贸易就业效应调整滞后。
[Abstract]:Employment is an important issue related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. The "18 National Congress" clearly proposed to "implement the employment priority strategy and more active employment policy", which indicates that the Party and the government attach great importance to the employment problem. Under underemployed conditions, total demand increases, output increases, employment increases. In closed economic systems, aggregate demand depends mainly on domestic demand; in open economic systems, foreign demand increases. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China's total trade volume has continued to grow, and its dependence on foreign trade has gradually increased. Under this background, the research on the effect of trade on employment is not only closely followed by social hot spots, but also has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the theory of investment multiplier, this paper holds that a country's trade not only directly promotes the employment of this industry by increasing demand, It also indirectly promotes the employment of related industries through the input-output relationship between trade industry and other industries. However, most previous studies have ignored this reality. In order to make up for the lack of previous research, this paper analyzes the trade structure of our country. On the basis of the present situation of employment structure, using the data of trade, output and employment from 1995 to 2011, and using the method of input-output analysis, the employment effect of industrial trade in China from 2002 to 2011 is calculated, and the employment effect of industrial trade from 1995 to 2011 is calculated. On the basis of this, the paper analyzes the employment effect of total trade, the employment effect of four industries, and the employment effect of industrial trade. Specifically, the research of this paper is divided into seven chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, the second chapter is related literature review and analysis. Chapter four studies the current situation of China's trade structure and employment structure, chapter 5th studies the effect of China's trade employment, chapter 6th continues to explore the effect of industrial trade employment, chapter 7th summarizes the main conclusions of this paper, and puts forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the total effect of trade employment in China is positive. 2002-2011, the cumulative net employment effect is two billion sixty-seven million. Second, when the four major industries divide the effects of trade employment, industry is the dominant effect of China's trade employment. The employment effect of service trade is second only to that of industry. Agricultural trade employment effect is the third largest trade employment effect industry, which belongs to the high direct employment effect industry, the construction trade employment effect industry is the weakest, the agricultural trade employment effect industry is the third largest trade employment effect industry, belongs to the high direct employment effect industry, the construction trade employment effect industry is the weakest. It belongs to low direct employment effect-low trade employment effect industry. Thirdly, when the employment effect of industrial trade is broken down by factor intensity, the labor-intensive industry is the dominant factor in the industrial trade employment effect. Belongs to the higher direct employment effect-high trade employment effect industries. Capital (technology)-intensive industries achieve negative effects to positive effects, The positive effect is increasing gradually, but the adjustment of the trade employment effect between the two shows different laws. The former fluctuates less, adjusts quickly and acts as the stabilizer of the industrial trade employment effect. The latter is affected by the scale of production. The adjustment of trade employment effect lags behind.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F249.2

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