基于系统动力学的煤炭资源枯竭型城市经济转型研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 15:32

本文关键词： 系统动力学资源枯竭型城市经济转型乌海市　出处：《中国地质大学（北京）》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在十八大“关于资源型城市转型发展意见”和《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划》的指引下，本文以我国典型的煤炭资源枯竭型城市——乌海市——为研究对象，采用个案研究、数理分析和经验总结相结合的方法,在城市和经济良性互动的前提下，探讨乌海市经济转型的路径选择。首先，本文对乌海市的历史和现状进行了介绍，指出伴随着资源的逐渐枯竭，乌海市面临的问题，提出了乌海市经济转型的必要性。其次，本文对国内外煤炭资源枯竭型城市经济转型的先进经验进行了介绍和总结，并根据这些经验，结合乌海市的现状，提出了乌海市经济转型的总体思路。再次，为了揭示乌海市经济系统内部存在的问题，探索乌海市经济转型的方向，本文以系统动力学理论为基础，建立了煤炭资源枯竭型城市经济转型的系统结构模型，将其分为六个系统的指标体系，以乌海市的数据为样本，仿真模拟乌海市2006-2021年的相关数据，并与实际数据进行比较分析，，以揭示乌海市经济存在的问题，探索其经济转型方向。在明确乌海市经济转型方向的基础上，本文结合乌海市的城市发展现状，提出了实现乌海市经济转型的三个关键问题，据此提出乌海市城市发展的定位和城市发展设想，以城市发展推动经济转型。以此为基础，本文最后提出了乌海市经济转型路径选择和对策建议。本文的研究结果表明：首先，国内外六个煤炭资源枯竭型城市经济转型过程中的经验可以归结为三点：政府主导、产业政策转变、经济转型。其次，乌海市经济转型的系统动力学的仿真结果表明：（1）乌海市单位固定资产的投入产出趋势走低，这说明固定资产投资将不再是乌海市产业经济增长的主要推动力。（2）乌海市第三产业单位固定资产投入产出高于工业投入的产出，故乌海市必须对固定资产投入的结构进行调整，在最小环境代价的情况下实现产业间组合投资收益的最大化。（3）环境治理投入对经济转型的作用在短时间内见效甚微，但它对工业固定资产投入的影响是随着时间逐步放大的。最后，以系统动力学的仿真结论为理论基础，吸取国内外煤炭资源枯竭型城市经济转型过程中的经验，结合目前乌海市城市发展的现状，提出了乌海市经济转型步骤，和相应的法规和政策，以保证经济转型的顺利实施。
[Abstract]:Under the guidance of "opinions on the Transformation and Development of Resource-based cities" and "National Sustainable Development Plan of Resource-based cities", this paper takes Wuhai City, a typical coal resource-exhausted city in China, as the research object and adopts case study. Under the premise of benign interaction between city and economy, this paper discusses the path choice of economic transformation in Wuhai City. First, this paper introduces the history and present situation of Wuhai City. This paper points out the problems faced by Wuhai with the gradual depletion of resources, and puts forward the necessity of economic transformation in Wuhai. Secondly, this paper introduces and summarizes the advanced experience of economic transformation of coal resource exhausted cities at home and abroad. According to these experiences, combined with the current situation of Wuhai City, this paper puts forward the overall thinking of economic transformation in Wuhai City. Thirdly, in order to reveal the problems existing in the economic system of Wuhai City, and to explore the direction of economic transformation in Wuhai City, Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper establishes the system structure model of the economic transformation of the coal resource exhausted city, and divides it into six index systems, taking the data of Wuhai city as the sample. The relevant data of Wuhai City from 2006 to 2021 are simulated and compared with the actual data in order to reveal the problems existing in the economy of Wuhai City and explore the direction of its economic transformation. On the basis of defining the direction of economic transformation of Wuhai City, According to the present situation of urban development in Wuhai City, this paper puts forward three key problems to realize the economic transformation of Wuhai City, and then puts forward the orientation of urban development and the idea of urban development in Wuhai City, which is based on urban development to promote economic transformation. Finally, this paper puts forward the choice of economic transition path and countermeasures. The results of this paper show that: first, the experience in the economic transformation of six coal resource exhausted cities at home and abroad can be summed up into three points: government leading, industrial policy transformation, economic transformation. The simulation results of the system dynamics of economic transformation in Wuhai City show that the input-output trend of fixed assets per unit in Wuhai City is lower. This shows that fixed asset investment will no longer be the main driving force for industrial economic growth in Wuhai City. (2) the input and output of fixed assets per unit of the tertiary industry in Wuhai City is higher than that of industrial input, so the structure of fixed assets input must be adjusted in Wuhai City. In the case of minimum environmental cost, the effect of environmental governance investment on economic transformation is very little in a short period of time. But its influence on the investment of industrial fixed assets is magnified gradually with time. Finally, based on the simulation results of system dynamics, the experience of domestic and foreign coal resource exhausted cities in the process of economic transformation is drawn. Combined with the present situation of urban development in Wuhai City, this paper puts forward the steps of economic transformation in Wuhai City, and the corresponding laws and policies, in order to ensure the smooth implementation of economic transformation.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;N941.3

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