达州市地价动态变化趋势研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 08:48

本文关键词： 城市地价动态监测地价指数数字地价模型时空变异规律　出处：《四川农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地价能直接反映土地市场变化的状况,是规范土地资源配置的重要手段。本文以达州市为研究对象,收集整理了2008-2012年城市地价动态监测数据成果,以土地经济学知识、地统计学原理和方法为指导,通过地价指数编制及拟合模型,分析和预测达州市地价时间变化趋势；在Arcgis9.3平台上,利用ESDA模块、Kriging插值、数字地价模型等方法和工具剖析达州市地价空间分布规律。主要研究结论如下：1、利用2008-2012年达州市城市地价动态监测数据成果编制了达州市分类地价指数以及综合地价指数,并通过分析2008-2012年间达州市地价时间序列上的变化特征,分析引起地价变化的影响因素。商业用地价格年平均增长额为79.2元/m2,涨幅达到20.92%,年平均涨幅为4.18%；各级别的地价水平都逐年上涨,级别间的地价水平有显著差异。居住用地价格年平均增长额为26.6元/m2,涨幅达到14.69%,年平均涨幅为2.94%；各级别的地价水平都呈现上升趋势,快速增长和缓慢增长交替出现。工业用地价格年平均增长额为2.1元/m2,涨幅达到6.9%,年平均涨幅为1.38%；各级别地价走势与水平线基本一致,总体保持小幅度缓慢上升趋势。2、分析了达州市商业、居住及工业用地地价时间变化序数,拟合各用途地价最优时间变化趋势模型,得到达州市2008-2015年度商业、居住及工业用地地价的预测值。结果表明达州市各用途地价在未来几年都呈现持续上涨的趋势。商业、居住以及工业用地价格三者对比,地价水平表现为商业居住工业,增长速度和增长幅度都表现为商业居住工工业。3、在Arcgis9.3软件平台上,运用直方图(Histogram)、正态QQ分布图(Normal QQ lot)、趋势分析图(Trend Analysis)、半方差／协方差函数云图(Semivariogram/Covariance cloud)等工具对2012年达州市动态监测样点地价进行空间探索性分析,结果发现商业、居住及工业用地样点地价均服从正态分布趋势。4、选取球状模型进行Kriging插值生成商业、居住及工业用地数字地价模型,并提取的地价等值线。通过地价等值线图分析,揭示达州市地价空间分布特征。商业用地地价空间分布特征：(1)地价空间分布呈现紧凑的圈层式结构,地价等值线有明显的空间向心性；(2)地价在空间分布上存在变异性,地价由商业中心向外围逐渐降低的同时,在某些区域发生变化：(3)地价分布在空间上具有区域性；(4)地价在空间上的梯度变化存在差异。居住用地地价空间分布特征：(1)地价空间分布近似圈层结构(2)居住用地呈现临街分布,毗邻商业中心的特点；(3)地价分布不均,在空间上具有区域性；(4)地价自中心城区向外围递减,梯度变化有所差异。工业用地地价空间分布特征：工业用地地价最高在700元/m2以上,最低在450元/m2以下：老城区、南外片区以及西外片区朝阳中路等区域工业地价普遍较高。
[Abstract]:The land price can directly reflect the change of the land market and is an important means to standardize the allocation of land resources. This paper takes Dazhou city as the research object, collects and arranges the data of dynamic monitoring of urban land price from 2008 to 2012, and makes use of the knowledge of land economics. Under the guidance of the principle and method of geostatistics, the trend of land price time change in Dazhou city is analyzed and forecasted by compiling and fitting model of land price index. On the platform of Arcgis9.3, the ESDA module is used to interpolate the land price in Dazhou city. Digital land price model and other methods and tools are used to analyze the spatial distribution of land price in Dazhou city. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. Using the dynamic monitoring data of urban land price in Dazhou city from 2008 to 2012, the classified land price index and the comprehensive land price index of Dazhou city are compiled. By analyzing the characteristics of the time series of land price in Dazhou city from 2008 to 2012, An analysis of the factors affecting the change in land price. The average annual increase in the price of commercial land is 79.2 yuan / m2, which is 20.922 yuan, and the annual average increase is 4.18%. The land price level of all levels has increased year by year. There are significant differences in the land price levels among different levels. The average annual increase in the price of residential land is 26.6 yuan / m2, which is 14.699.The average annual increase is 2.94. the land price level at all levels shows an upward trend. Rapid growth and slow growth alternately occur. The average annual increase in the price of industrial land is 2.1 yuan / m2, an increase of 6.9 yuan and an average annual increase of 1.38. The trend of land prices at all levels is basically the same as the horizontal line. On the whole, it keeps a small and slow upward trend. 2. This paper analyzes the number of time changes of land price in Dazhou city, analyzes the number of time changes in land price of Dazhou city, fits the model of optimal time change of land price for each purpose, and obtains the commercial value in 2008-2015. The results show that the land price of various uses in Dazhou City will continue to rise in the next few years. Compared with commercial, residential and industrial land prices, the land price level is shown as commercial residential industry. Both the growth rate and the growth rate are as follows: commercial, residential, industrial. 3. On the Arcgis9.3 software platform, Using histogram, normal QQ distribution map, trend analysis, semi-variance / covariance function cloud map, etc., the spatial exploratory analysis of land price at dynamic monitoring sites in Dazhou City in 2012 was carried out. From the normal distribution trend. 4, the spherical model is selected to generate the digital land price model of commercial, residential and industrial land by Kriging interpolation, and the obtained land price isoline is analyzed through the land price isoline map. This paper reveals the spatial distribution of land price in Dazhou city. While the land price is gradually decreasing from the commercial center to the periphery, The spatial distribution of land price is different in space. The spatial distribution of residential land price is similar to that of circle structure. The characteristics of adjoining commercial center are as follows: the distribution of land price is uneven, and there is a regional distribution of land price in space. The land price decreases from the central city to the periphery, and the gradient changes are different. The spatial distribution of industrial land price: the highest value of industrial land price is more than 700 yuan / m ~ 2, The lowest value is less than 450 yuan / m2: the industrial land price is generally high in the old urban area, the south outside area and the Chaoyang Central Road in the west part of the area.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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