基于PPP的城市基础设施建设风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 07:39

本文关键词： PPP 城市基础设施建设风险污水处理厂　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：PPP融资模式是适应时代发展的一种新的投融资模式,能够减轻政府财政压力,提高项目运营与服务效率,使得市场的发动机更加强劲有力,促进经济的更快发展。城市政府部门如何引导民资或外资投资到城市基础设施建设中,这将是解决未来城市基础设施发展的必要问题。对PPP融资模式的探讨可为政府提供更多的融资经验,从而促进城市基础设施建设的更快发展。关于PPP模式的研究主要有两个方向,本文从风险管理角度,在前人研究上,采用定性与定量相结合的方法对PPP模式进行研究。首先介绍了PPP模式的相关概念、运行方式,构建PPP项目风险评价模型,利用层次分析法对基于PPP模式的污水处理厂项目进行风险识别及评价,而且建立风险分担的无限期完美信息动态博弈模型,从而确定风险分担比例,再次结合建设实例说明PPP模式在我国的可行性以及实用性。分析结果表明：A市东片污水处理厂PPP项目的完工风险相对来说重要性程度最大,其次是金融风险,运营风险和自然风险所占比例差不多；在二级指标中,对于金融风险来说最重要的是利率风险,完工风险中最重要的是项目无法完工风险,运营风险中最重要的是水费拖欠风险,而对于自然风险来说最重要的是地质风险；对于PPP项目来说,风险承担比例和风险收益率是负相关关系,即风险预期收益率越小,时间价值成本会越低,那么耐心程度会越高,承担的风险比例越大。研究成果将会促进PPP模式在我国城市基础设施建设中的应用,对城市基础设施建设具有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:PPP financing mode is a new mode of investment and financing adapted to the development of the times. It can relieve the pressure of government finance, improve the efficiency of project operation and service, and make the engine of the market more powerful and powerful. To promote faster economic development. How should urban government departments direct private or foreign investment in urban infrastructure construction, This will be a necessary solution to the future development of urban infrastructure. A discussion of the PPP financing model could provide the government with more experience in financing. So as to promote the rapid development of urban infrastructure construction. The research on PPP model has two main directions. This paper, from the perspective of risk management, in the previous studies, The PPP model is studied by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Firstly, the concept and operation mode of PPP model are introduced, and the risk assessment model of PPP project is constructed. The risk identification and evaluation of wastewater treatment plant project based on PPP model are carried out by using AHP, and the dynamic game model of indefinite perfect information is established to determine the risk sharing ratio. Again, the feasibility and practicability of the PPP model in China are illustrated by a construction example. The analysis results show that the completion risk of the PPP project of Dongping sewage treatment plant in the city of: a is relatively the most important, followed by the financial risk. The ratio of operational risk to natural risk is the same; of the secondary indicators, the most important for financial risk is the interest rate risk, and the most important for the completion risk is the failure to complete the project. The most important part of the operational risk is the default risk of water fee, and the most important is geological risk for the natural risk. For the PPP project, the ratio of risk acceptance and risk return is negatively correlated, that is, the smaller the expected rate of return, the smaller the expected rate of return. The lower the cost of time value, the higher the degree of patience and the greater the risk. The research results will promote the application of PPP model in urban infrastructure construction in China, and have important guiding significance for urban infrastructure construction.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283;F299.24

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