基于生态足迹的济南市可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 09:49

本文关键词： 生态足迹济南线性回归　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：生态足迹理论是一种评价可持续发展的理论,它通过比较人类消耗的生态资源与自然环境所提供的生态资源,对所研究地区的可持续性进行评价。由于自然资源的不可比性,因此使用的是将对生态资源转化为生产它们的可比生物生产性土地的方法。本文以生态足迹理论为基础,对济南市的可持续性进行评价。首先,选择适合济南市的生态足迹计量模型,为体现本地性采用国家公顷法；其次,计算静态生态足迹,即济南市2012年的生态足迹与生态承载力,通过比较分析得出济南市处于生态赤字或生态盈余,并给予可持续性评价；再次,生态足迹包括碳足迹账户和生物质资源账户,对1996年至2012年济南市的生态足迹分账户进行回归分析,发现影响不同账户的产业因素；最后,根据回归结果,对济南市未来五年生态足迹的变化给予预测,并给出增强济南市可持续发展的政策建议。结论,济南市人均生态足迹(即生态需求)远远高于人均济南市生态承载力(即生态供给),生态赤字很大。能源性生态足迹(碳足迹)占整个生态足迹较高的比重,与工业、建筑业呈较强的正相关,与服务业呈较强的负相关,与农业、人口规模不相关。生物质生态足迹与三产业和人口均无显著的相关性。总的生态足迹与工业产值呈显著正相关,与服务业呈显著负相关,与其他产业和人口不相关,线性方程为LnY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2+15.74,(Y为总生态足迹,X1为工业增加值,X2为服务业产值),本文通过预测未来五年的工业增加值和服务业产值来预测未来总的生态足迹。结果显示未来生态足迹增长有限。但因为目前生态赤字较大,应采取必要的措施。措施主要有：采取增加农业耕地的生态供给,限制高耗能工业,发展高端制造业,以减少生态需求,同时为服务业创造更有利的发展环境,以促进服务业的繁荣,缓解因高耗能高污染工业的关闭而引起的发展动力不足的问题。
[Abstract]:Ecological footprint theory is a theory of evaluating sustainable development. It evaluates the sustainability of the studied area by comparing the ecological resources consumed by human beings with the ecological resources provided by the natural environment. Thus, a method is used to convert ecological resources into comparable bioproductive land for their production. Based on the ecological footprint theory, this paper evaluates the sustainability of Jinan. Firstly, select the ecological footprint measurement model suitable for Jinan, to reflect the local use of the national hectare method; secondly, calculate the static ecological footprint. That is, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Jinan in 2012, through comparative analysis, it is concluded that Jinan is in ecological deficit or ecological surplus, and gives sustainability evaluation. Thirdly, ecological footprint includes carbon footprint account and biomass resource account. Based on the regression analysis of ecological footprint sub-accounts in Jinan from 1996 to 2012, the industrial factors affecting different accounts are found. Finally, according to the regression results, the changes of ecological footprint in Jinan in the next five years are predicted. And give the policy suggestion of strengthening the sustainable development of Jinan city. Conclusion: the per capita ecological footprint (i.e. ecological demand) of Jinan is much higher than that of the ecological carrying capacity (i.e. ecological supply) of Jinan, and the ecological deficit is very large. The energy ecological footprint (carbon footprint) accounts for a high proportion of the whole ecological footprint, and it is associated with industry. There was a strong positive correlation between the construction industry and the service industry, but no correlation with agriculture and population size. There was no significant correlation between the biomass ecological footprint and the three industries and the population, but the total ecological footprint was significantly positively correlated with the industrial output value. There was significant negative correlation with service industry, but no correlation with other industries and population. The linear equation is LnY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2 15.74% for the total ecological footprint and X1 for industrial added value and X2 for service industry output value. This paper predicts the future ecological footprint by predicting the industrial added value and service industry output value in the next five years. The results show that the future ecological footprint is expected in the future. Footprint growth is limited. But because of the current ecological deficit, Necessary measures should be taken. The main measures include: increasing the ecological supply of agricultural arable land, limiting energy-consuming industries, developing high-end manufacturing industries in order to reduce ecological demand, and creating a more favourable environment for the development of the service industry. In order to promote the prosperity of the service industry and alleviate the problem of insufficient development power caused by the closure of energy-intensive and polluting industries.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

【参考文献】