利率市场化与我国长期经济增长的动态一般均衡分析

发布时间：2018-03-02 03:01

本文关键词： 利率市场化信贷歧视经济增长 CGE模型　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国积极地调整利率总体水平以及利率结构，改善利率管理体制为利率的自由化奠定扎实的基础。1993年党的第十四届三种全会第一次提出利率市场化，截止2014年我国的市场化进程已经走过约20个年头，期间内我国的利率市场化取得了巨大的成就。首先放开了银行间同业拆借利率，并于1996年和2007年分别构建了Chibor和Shibor，逐步构建了市场化的利率体系；随后通过放开债券利率管制，使得包括国债、银行间现券交易以及银行间回购交易在内的多种债券实现了市场化；最后逐渐放松存贷款率的管制，到2014年初为止，我国仅对存款利率存在上限管制，基本形成了以Shibor为短期、国债为长期的市场化利率体系。改革虽已取得了显著的成效，但面临的问题仍然严峻，存款利率上限管制造就了实际利率低于均衡水平、信贷歧视现象显著以及金融业投资效率不高的问题。随着金融改革的推进，存款利率的管制放松将成为必然选择，而利率市场化意味着利率竞争格局逐步形成，并将对实体经济发展产生深刻影响。进而本文基于利率市场化（存款利率上限管制放松）对经济增长的影响机理，首先使用1990-2010年，我国24个工业行业的面板数据通过广义最小二乘法检验了利率歧视的分行业特征，发现我国信贷歧视现象确实由于国有企业的行业分布的越位和缺位特征存在于行业间。继而，基于中国动态可计算一般均衡模型（Chinagem）的基础上，基于投资行为的视角构建了信贷歧视的动态CGE模型，刻画了当前利率市场化改革的影响特征，分别模拟整体利率水平提高、分行业利率歧视消除、以及金融服务增效此三条路径的动态影响及综合影响。研究结果表明，尽管整体利率水平提高不利于中国经济长期增长，但随着利率歧视的消除，，行业结构在长期进一步优化，减缓了投资规模和经济增长的下降程度，并带来了较为显著的就业效应。长期而言，改革更多的福利源于金融行业挖掘增长潜力后带来的对其他行业的服务增效，最终为中国长期经济增长带来了较大的空间。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has actively adjusted the overall level of interest rates and the structure of interest rates, and improved the interest rate management system to lay a solid foundation for the liberalization of interest rates. In 1993, the third Plenary session of the 14th CPC Congress proposed the marketization of interest rates for the first time. As of 2014, the marketization process of our country has gone through about 20 years. During this period, great achievements have been made in the marketization of interest rates in our country. In 1996 and 2007, respectively, Chibor and Shiborestablished a market-oriented interest rate system. Many kinds of bonds, such as inter-bank bond trading and inter-bank repo transaction, have been marketized. Finally, the regulation of deposit and loan rate has been gradually relaxed. Until early 2014, China only has the upper limit control on deposit interest rate, which basically takes Shibor as the short-term. National debt is a long-term market-oriented interest rate system. Although the reform has achieved remarkable results, the problems facing it are still severe. The upper limit control of deposit interest rates has resulted in the actual interest rate being below the equilibrium level. The phenomenon of credit discrimination is obvious and the investment efficiency of financial industry is not high. With the development of financial reform, the deregulation of deposit interest rate will become an inevitable choice, and the marketization of interest rate means that the pattern of interest rate competition is gradually formed and will have a profound impact on the development of real economy. Then, based on the mechanism of interest rate liberalization (deregulation of the upper limit of deposit interest rate) on economic growth, this paper first uses 1990-2010. The panel data of 24 industries in China tested the subsectoral characteristics of interest rate discrimination by using the generalized least square method, and found that the phenomenon of credit discrimination in China is indeed due to the offside and absence characteristics of the industry distribution of state-owned enterprises. Based on the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper constructs a dynamic CGE model of credit discrimination from the perspective of investment behavior, depicts the influence characteristics of the current interest rate marketization reform, and simulates the improvement of the overall interest rate level, respectively. Elimination of interest rate discrimination by industry, and dynamic and comprehensive effects of the three paths of increasing interest rates in financial services. The results of the study show that although the overall interest rate level is not conducive to the long-term growth of the Chinese economy, with the elimination of interest rate discrimination, The industry structure has been further optimized in the long run, slowing down the decline in investment size and economic growth, and bringing about a more significant employment effect. In the long run, The reform of more welfare comes from the service efficiency of other industries after the financial industry exploits its growth potential, and finally brings more space for China's long-term economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124;F822.0

【参考文献】